Serie A · 2022/23
2023-04-14 · 19:45
15.1518.6%
X3.6226.4%
21.7455.0%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Spezia
LDDDLLLDWD
1W 5D 4L · 0.80 PPM
Lazio
WWLLWDWWDW
6W 2D 2L · 2.00 PPM

Goals

0.70
Scored
1.20
1.40
Conceded
0.60
40%
Over 2.5
20%
50%
BTTS
20%

By half

0.90
1H goals
0.70
1.20
2H goals
1.10
70%
Goal in 2H
80%

Corners

5.50N=10
For
4.40N=10
5.30
Against
5.10
10.80
Total
9.50
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongAt least one second-half goal

7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

9/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
0.70
Goals scored
1.20
1.40
Goals conceded
0.60
2.10
Total goals
1.80
80%8/10
Over 1.5
70%7/10
40%4/10
Over 2.5
20%2/10
10%1/10
Over 3.5
0%0/10
50%5/10
BTTS
20%2/10
Matchup

Spezia attack

0.70goals per match
Lazio conceded0.60
Matchup

Lazio attack

1.20goals per match
Spezia conceded1.40
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.40
1H goals scored
0.60
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.10
60%6/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
60%6/10
0.30
2H goals scored
0.60
0.90
2H goals conceded
0.50
70%7/10
Over 0.5 2H
80%8/10
20%2/10
More goals in 2H
40%4/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
5.50N=10
Corners for
4.40N=10
5.30
Corners against
5.10
10.80
Match total
9.50
90%9/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
70%7/10
Over 9.5
60%6/10
60%6/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.40N=10
For
2.00N=10
4.10
Match total
5.40
60%6/10
Over 3.5
90%9/10

Fouls

12.90N=10
Committed
9.70N=10
24.70
Match total
23.60

Shots

12.10N=10
Shots
9.50N=10
3.60
On target
3.30
6%
Conversion
13%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches81
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home18.6%24.7%+6.1 pp
Draw26.4%30.9%+4.4 pp
Away55.0%44.4%-10.5 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.572.8%
Over 2.530.9%
Over 3.514.8%
BTTS45.7%

Historical average

0.851.31

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-119.8%
0-218.5%
1-011.1%
0-18.6%
1-27.4%

Comparable corner averages

3.745.91
Average total9.65

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=81.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.561.7%
Over 9.549.4%
Over 10.537.0%
Over 11.529.6%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches29
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT31.0%17.3%–49.2% CI
Draw FT34.5%19.9%–52.7% CI
Away FT34.5%19.9%–52.7% CI

Remaining goals

1.45

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal79.3%
2+ goals44.8%
3+ goals17.2%

Who scores in 2H

Home48.3%
Away55.2%