Serie A · 2022/23
2023-04-08 · 13:30
11.4267.5%
X4.6820.5%
27.9712.0%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Fiorentina
LLWDWLLDWW
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM
Spezia
LLLLWWLDDL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM

Goals

1.30
Scored
0.80
1.60
Conceded
1.70
60%
Over 2.5
50%
70%
BTTS
40%

By half

1.20
1H goals
1.10
1.70
2H goals
1.40
80%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

6.40N=10
For
5.00N=10
2.60
Against
4.20
9.00
Total
9.20
Signals

Key historical patterns

very strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.30
Goals scored
0.80
1.60
Goals conceded
1.70
2.90
Total goals
2.50
80%8/10
Over 1.5
70%7/10
60%6/10
Over 2.5
50%5/10
20%2/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
70%7/10
BTTS
40%4/10
Matchup

Fiorentina attack

1.30goals per match
Spezia conceded1.70
Matchup

Spezia attack

0.80goals per match
Fiorentina conceded1.60
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
0.40
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.70
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.80
2H goals scored
0.40
0.90
2H goals conceded
1.00
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
40%4/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
6.40N=10
Corners for
5.00N=10
2.60
Corners against
4.20
9.00
Match total
9.20
50%5/10
Over 8.5
80%8/10
40%4/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
70%7/10
Team over 4.5
60%6/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.20N=10
For
3.00N=10
5.00
Match total
5.10
90%9/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

12.00N=10
Committed
14.60N=10
27.70
Match total
24.50

Shots

18.60N=10
Shots
11.40N=10
5.10
On target
3.40
7%
Conversion
7%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches148
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home67.5%73.0%+5.5 pp
Draw20.5%14.2%-6.3 pp
Away12.0%12.8%+0.8 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.575.7%
Over 2.552.7%
Over 3.529.1%
BTTS36.5%

Historical average

2.120.64

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

2-017.6%
1-012.8%
2-110.8%
3-010.8%
0-18.1%

Comparable corner averages

6.523.31
Average total9.83

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=148.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.565.5%
Over 9.553.4%
Over 10.539.2%
Over 11.529.7%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches43
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT60.5%45.6%–73.6% CI
Draw FT23.3%13.2%–37.7% CI
Away FT16.3%8.1%–30.0% CI

Remaining goals

1.60

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal88.4%
2+ goals41.9%
3+ goals18.6%

Who scores in 2H

Home74.4%
Away30.2%