Serie A · 2022/23
2023-04-08 · 13:30
11.4267.5%
X4.6820.5%
27.9712.0%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Fiorentina
LLWDWLLDWW
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM
Spezia
LLLLWWLDDL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM
Goals
1.30
Scored
0.80
1.60
Conceded
1.70
60%
Over 2.5
50%
70%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.20
1H goals
1.10
1.70
2H goals
1.40
80%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
6.40N=10
For
5.00N=10
2.60
Against
4.20
9.00
Total
9.20
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.30
Goals scored
0.80
1.60
Goals conceded
1.70
2.90
Total goals
2.50
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Fiorentina attack
1.30goals per matchSpezia conceded1.70Matchup
Spezia attack
0.80goals per matchFiorentina conceded1.60Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
0.40
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.80
2H goals scored
0.40
0.90
2H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.40N=10
Corners for
5.00N=10
2.60
Corners against
4.20
9.00
Match total
9.20
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.20N=10
For
3.00N=10
5.00
Match total
5.10
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.00N=10
Committed
14.60N=10
27.70
Match total
24.50
Shots
18.60N=10
Shots
11.40N=10
5.10
On target
3.40
7%
Conversion
7%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches148
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home67.5%73.0%+5.5 pp
Draw20.5%14.2%-6.3 pp
Away12.0%12.8%+0.8 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.575.7%
Over 2.552.7%
Over 3.529.1%
BTTS36.5%
Historical average
2.12–0.64
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-017.6%
1-012.8%
2-110.8%
3-010.8%
0-18.1%
Comparable corner averages
6.52–3.31
Average total9.83
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=148.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.5%
Over 9.553.4%
Over 10.539.2%
Over 11.529.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches43
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT60.5%45.6%–73.6% CI
Draw FT23.3%13.2%–37.7% CI
Away FT16.3%8.1%–30.0% CI
Remaining goals
1.60
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal88.4%
2+ goals41.9%
3+ goals18.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home74.4%
Away30.2%