Serie A · 2022/23
2023-03-04 · 19:45
12.8633.5%
X3.2829.2%
22.5637.4%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Fiorentina
DWLLWDWLLD
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Milan
WWWLDWDLLW
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Goals
1.30
Scored
1.30
1.60
Conceded
1.30
50%
Over 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
60%
By half
1.40
1H goals
1.30
1.50
2H goals
1.30
80%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
6.90N=10
For
3.20N=10
2.30
Against
5.70
9.20
Total
8.90
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateBoth teams scored
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.30
Goals scored
1.30
1.60
Goals conceded
1.30
2.90
Total goals
2.60
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Fiorentina attack
1.30goals per matchMilan conceded1.30Matchup
Milan attack
1.30goals per matchFiorentina conceded1.60Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.50
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.70
2H goals scored
0.80
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.90N=10
Corners for
3.20N=10
2.30
Corners against
5.70
9.20
Match total
8.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.30N=10
For
2.30N=10
5.20
Match total
5.60
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.50N=10
Committed
12.30N=10
27.30
Match total
25.30
Shots
18.40N=10
Shots
13.40N=10
5.40
On target
4.80
7%
Conversion
10%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches525
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home33.5%31.4%-2.0 pp
Draw29.2%28.2%-1.0 pp
Away37.4%40.4%+3.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.569.9%
Over 2.546.3%
Over 3.524.0%
BTTS50.9%
Historical average
1.14–1.31
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-113.5%
1-112.6%
2-19.3%
0-08.8%
1-07.8%
Comparable corner averages
4.86–4.97
Average total9.83
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=525.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.564.0%
Over 9.552.2%
Over 10.539.2%
Over 11.527.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches177
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT28.8%22.6%–35.9% CI
Draw FT37.3%30.5%–44.6% CI
Away FT33.9%27.3%–41.1% CI
Remaining goals
1.34
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal74.0%
2+ goals37.3%
3+ goals16.4%
Who scores in 2H
Home43.5%
Away53.7%