Serie A · 2022/23
2023-03-04 · 19:45
12.8633.5%
X3.2829.2%
22.5637.4%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Fiorentina
DWLLWDWLLD
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Milan
WWWLDWDLLW
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM

Goals

1.30
Scored
1.30
1.60
Conceded
1.30
50%
Over 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
60%

By half

1.40
1H goals
1.30
1.50
2H goals
1.30
80%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

6.90N=10
For
3.20N=10
2.30
Against
5.70
9.20
Total
8.90
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateBoth teams scored

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.30
Goals scored
1.30
1.60
Goals conceded
1.30
2.90
Total goals
2.60
90%9/10
Over 1.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
20%2/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
70%7/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Fiorentina attack

1.30goals per match
Milan conceded1.30
Matchup

Milan attack

1.30goals per match
Fiorentina conceded1.60
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.50
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.80
90%9/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
0.70
2H goals scored
0.80
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.50
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
20%2/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
6.90N=10
Corners for
3.20N=10
2.30
Corners against
5.70
9.20
Match total
8.90
60%6/10
Over 8.5
40%4/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
80%8/10
Team over 4.5
10%1/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.30N=10
For
2.30N=10
5.20
Match total
5.60
90%9/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

12.50N=10
Committed
12.30N=10
27.30
Match total
25.30

Shots

18.40N=10
Shots
13.40N=10
5.40
On target
4.80
7%
Conversion
10%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches525
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home33.5%31.4%-2.0 pp
Draw29.2%28.2%-1.0 pp
Away37.4%40.4%+3.0 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.569.9%
Over 2.546.3%
Over 3.524.0%
BTTS50.9%

Historical average

1.141.31

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-113.5%
1-112.6%
2-19.3%
0-08.8%
1-07.8%

Comparable corner averages

4.864.97
Average total9.83

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=525.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.564.0%
Over 9.552.2%
Over 10.539.2%
Over 11.527.6%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches177
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT28.8%22.6%–35.9% CI
Draw FT37.3%30.5%–44.6% CI
Away FT33.9%27.3%–41.1% CI

Remaining goals

1.34

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal74.0%
2+ goals37.3%
3+ goals16.4%

Who scores in 2H

Home43.5%
Away53.7%