Serie A · 2020/21
2021-04-18 · 11:30
11.4864.5%
X4.5121.2%
26.6614.3%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Milan
DWLWLWLDLD
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Genoa
LWLDWDLLWL
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM

Goals

1.40
Scored
0.90
1.60
Conceded
1.30
60%
Over 2.5
60%
50%
BTTS
40%

By half

1.10
1H goals
0.90
1.90
2H goals
1.30
90%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

6.80N=10
For
3.70N=10
4.70
Against
5.80
11.50
Total
9.50
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

10/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.40
Goals scored
0.90
1.60
Goals conceded
1.30
3.00
Total goals
2.20
90%9/10
Over 1.5
70%7/10
60%6/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
10%1/10
50%5/10
BTTS
40%4/10
Matchup

Milan attack

1.40goals per match
Genoa conceded1.30
Matchup

Genoa attack

0.90goals per match
Milan conceded1.60
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.30
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.60
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
60%6/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
10%1/10
0.80
2H goals scored
0.60
1.10
2H goals conceded
0.70
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
70%7/10
More goals in 2H
40%4/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
6.80N=10
Corners for
3.70N=10
4.70
Corners against
5.80
11.50
Match total
9.50
100%10/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
80%8/10
Over 9.5
60%6/10
90%9/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.60N=10
For
2.80N=10
4.90
Match total
5.00
70%7/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

14.50N=10
Committed
14.30N=10
27.00
Match total
29.10

Shots

13.50N=10
Shots
7.00N=10
6.70
On target
3.30
10%
Conversion
13%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches48
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home64.5%52.1%-12.4 pp
Draw21.2%33.3%+12.2 pp
Away14.3%14.6%+0.2 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.583.3%
Over 2.550.0%
Over 3.531.3%
BTTS50.0%

Historical average

1.920.92

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-116.7%
1-010.4%
2-010.4%
2-28.3%
0-26.3%

Comparable corner averages

6.253.71
Average total9.96

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=48.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.558.3%
Over 9.547.9%
Over 10.537.5%
Over 11.531.3%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches13
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT46.2%23.2%–70.9% CI
Draw FT46.2%23.2%–70.9% CI
Away FT7.7%1.4%–33.3% CI

Remaining goals

1.69

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal84.6%
2+ goals61.5%
3+ goals15.4%

Who scores in 2H

Home76.9%
Away38.5%