Serie A · 2020/21
2021-04-17 · 17:00
12.5138.0%
X3.2129.7%
22.9532.3%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Sassuolo
LWLWDLDDWD
3W 4D 3L · 1.30 PPM
Fiorentina
LLWLLDLLWD
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM
Goals
1.50
Scored
1.10
1.70
Conceded
1.90
70%
Over 2.5
60%
80%
BTTS
50%
By half
1.50
1H goals
1.60
1.70
2H goals
1.40
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
5.60N=10
For
4.90N=10
4.40
Against
5.00
10.00
Total
9.90
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
1.10
1.70
Goals conceded
1.90
3.20
Total goals
3.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Sassuolo attack
1.50goals per matchFiorentina conceded1.90Matchup
Fiorentina attack
1.10goals per matchSassuolo conceded1.70Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
0.60
1.00
1H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.00
2H goals scored
0.50
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.60N=10
Corners for
4.90N=10
4.40
Corners against
5.00
10.00
Match total
9.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.40N=10
For
2.00N=10
4.70
Match total
3.70
Over 3.5
Fouls
14.80N=10
Committed
14.60N=10
28.00
Match total
28.70
Shots
13.60N=10
Shots
9.00N=10
5.90
On target
4.40
11%
Conversion
12%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches28
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home38.0%42.9%+4.9 pp
Draw29.7%21.4%-8.3 pp
Away32.3%35.7%+3.4 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.585.7%
Over 2.553.6%
Over 3.535.7%
BTTS64.3%
Historical average
1.43–1.39
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-117.9%
0-210.7%
1-010.7%
3-110.7%
1-310.7%
Comparable corner averages
4.61–4.50
Average total9.11
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=28.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.542.9%
Over 9.535.7%
Over 10.528.6%
Over 11.521.4%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT47.4%27.3%–68.3% CI
Draw FT26.3%11.8%–48.8% CI
Away FT26.3%11.8%–48.8% CI
Remaining goals
1.79
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal84.2%
2+ goals42.1%
3+ goals31.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home63.2%
Away52.6%