Serie A · 2020/21
2021-04-03 · 14:00
11.4565.7%
X4.5820.8%
27.0813.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Lazio
DLLWWWWWWW
7W 1D 2L · 2.20 PPM
Spezia
DLLWDLWLLL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM
Goals
1.70
Scored
1.20
1.00
Conceded
2.30
60%
Over 2.5
90%
60%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.40
1H goals
0.70
1.30
2H goals
2.80
90%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
5.00N=10
For
4.20N=10
4.80
Against
4.00
9.80
Total
8.20
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
6/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
moderateBoth teams scored
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.70
Goals scored
1.20
1.00
Goals conceded
2.30
2.70
Total goals
3.50
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Lazio attack
1.70goals per matchSpezia conceded2.30Matchup
Spezia attack
1.20goals per matchLazio conceded1.00Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.40
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.90
2H goals scored
0.80
0.40
2H goals conceded
2.00
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.00N=10
Corners for
4.20N=10
4.80
Corners against
4.00
9.80
Match total
8.20
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
3.00N=10
For
2.10N=10
5.80
Match total
4.30
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.20N=10
Committed
12.90N=10
26.40
Match total
27.50
Shots
11.80N=10
Shots
8.70N=10
6.20
On target
3.60
14%
Conversion
14%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches74
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home65.7%75.7%+9.9 pp
Draw20.8%14.9%-5.9 pp
Away13.5%9.5%-4.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.587.8%
Over 2.566.2%
Over 3.537.8%
BTTS51.4%
Historical average
2.39–0.82
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-116.2%
3-112.2%
2-09.5%
3-09.5%
1-06.8%
Comparable corner averages
6.34–3.68
Average total10.01
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=74.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.556.8%
Over 9.548.6%
Over 10.537.8%
Over 11.527.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches26
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT65.4%46.2%–80.6% CI
Draw FT23.1%11.0%–42.1% CI
Away FT11.5%4.0%–29.0% CI
Remaining goals
2.19
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal88.5%
2+ goals73.1%
3+ goals42.3%
Who scores in 2H
Home80.8%
Away38.5%