Serie A · 2020/21
2021-02-13 · 19:45
16.4114.8%
X4.4621.3%
21.4963.8%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Spezia
LDLDLDLLWL
1W 3D 6L · 0.60 PPM
Milan
WWWWWDWWWW
9W 1D 0L · 2.80 PPM

Goals

1.00
Scored
2.10
1.90
Conceded
0.80
70%
Over 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
70%

By half

1.40
1H goals
1.20
1.50
2H goals
1.70
90%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

3.60N=10
For
5.10N=10
3.00
Against
5.90
6.60
Total
11.00
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

strongBoth teams scored

7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.00
Goals scored
2.10
1.90
Goals conceded
0.80
2.90
Total goals
2.90
70%7/10
Over 1.5
100%10/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
70%7/10
BTTS
70%7/10
Matchup

Spezia attack

1.00goals per match
Milan conceded0.80
Matchup

Milan attack

2.10goals per match
Spezia conceded1.90
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
1.10
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.10
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
90%9/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
90%9/10
0.40
2H goals scored
1.00
1.10
2H goals conceded
0.70
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
50%5/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
3.60N=10
Corners for
5.10N=10
3.00
Corners against
5.90
6.60
Match total
11.00
10%1/10
Over 8.5
70%7/10
10%1/10
Over 9.5
70%7/10
20%2/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

3.80N=10
For
2.70N=10
5.80
Match total
4.60
90%9/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

17.00N=10
Committed
13.40N=10
30.70
Match total
25.80

Shots

8.20N=10
Shots
10.00N=10
4.00
On target
6.30
12%
Conversion
21%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches33
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home14.8%15.2%+0.3 pp
Draw21.3%12.1%-9.2 pp
Away63.8%72.7%+8.9 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.572.7%
Over 2.554.5%
Over 3.527.3%
BTTS33.3%

Historical average

0.582.15

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-218.2%
0-212.1%
0-112.1%
1-012.1%
0-39.1%

Comparable corner averages

3.647.09
Average total10.73

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=33.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.569.7%
Over 9.563.6%
Over 10.548.5%
Over 11.539.4%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches13
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT15.4%4.3%–42.2% CI
Draw FT30.8%12.7%–57.6% CI
Away FT53.8%29.1%–76.8% CI

Remaining goals

1.85

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal84.6%
2+ goals53.8%
3+ goals30.8%

Who scores in 2H

Home46.2%
Away69.2%