Serie A · 2019/20
2020-08-02 · 17:00
16.2715.2%
X4.8519.6%
21.4665.2%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Spal
LLLLLDLLLD
0W 2D 8L · 0.20 PPM
Fiorentina
DWLWDLWWDL
4W 3D 3L · 1.50 PPM

Goals

0.70
Scored
1.50
2.60
Conceded
1.10
70%
Over 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
60%

By half

1.30
1H goals
1.30
2.00
2H goals
1.30
100%
Goal in 2H
80%

Corners

2.80N=10
For
3.50N=10
6.80
Against
7.60
9.60
Total
11.10
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

moderateBoth teams scored

6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

10/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
0.70
Goals scored
1.50
2.60
Goals conceded
1.10
3.30
Total goals
2.60
90%9/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
60%6/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Spal attack

0.70goals per match
Fiorentina conceded1.10
Matchup

Fiorentina attack

1.50goals per match
Spal conceded2.60
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
1.10
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.20
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
20%2/10
Leading at HT
60%6/10
0.20
2H goals scored
0.40
1.80
2H goals conceded
0.90
100%10/10
Over 0.5 2H
80%8/10
60%6/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
2.80N=10
Corners for
3.50N=10
6.80
Corners against
7.60
9.60
Match total
11.10
50%5/10
Over 8.5
80%8/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
70%7/10
20%2/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.20N=10
For
3.10N=10
4.10
Match total
5.70
60%6/10
Over 3.5
90%9/10

Fouls

13.70N=10
Committed
12.50N=10
26.80
Match total
24.70

Shots

8.20N=10
Shots
8.20N=10
3.20
On target
5.20
9%
Conversion
18%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches14
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home15.2%14.3%-0.9 pp
Draw19.6%28.6%+8.9 pp
Away65.2%57.1%-8.1 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.592.9%
Over 2.542.9%
Over 3.535.7%
BTTS57.1%

Historical average

0.932.14

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-128.6%
0-221.4%
1-27.1%
2-47.1%
0-57.1%

Comparable corner averages

4.146.00
Average total10.14

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=14.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.571.4%
Over 9.557.1%
Over 10.535.7%
Over 11.521.4%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches10
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT30.0%10.8%–60.3% CI
Draw FT20.0%5.7%–51.0% CI
Away FT50.0%23.7%–76.3% CI

Remaining goals

2.60

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal90.0%
2+ goals70.0%
3+ goals40.0%

Who scores in 2H

Home60.0%
Away70.0%