Serie A · 2019/20
2020-07-08 · 18:30
16.1515.5%
X4.0123.8%
21.5760.7%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Genoa
WLLLWLWLLL
3W 0D 7L · 0.90 PPM
Napoli
LDDWLWWWWL
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Goals
1.20
Scored
1.40
2.00
Conceded
1.10
70%
Over 2.5
40%
70%
BTTS
60%
By half
1.20
1H goals
1.00
2.00
2H goals
1.50
90%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
4.50N=10
For
5.70N=10
3.90
Against
5.20
8.40
Total
10.90
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateBoth teams scored
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.40
2.00
Goals conceded
1.10
3.20
Total goals
2.50
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Genoa attack
1.20goals per matchNapoli conceded1.10Matchup
Napoli attack
1.40goals per matchGenoa conceded2.00Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.40
1H goals scored
0.40
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.80
2H goals scored
1.00
1.20
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.50N=10
Corners for
5.70N=10
3.90
Corners against
5.20
8.40
Match total
10.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
3.00N=10
For
2.20N=10
6.20
Match total
4.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
16.40N=10
Committed
11.60N=10
31.50
Match total
28.30
Shots
8.10N=10
Shots
11.70N=10
5.10
On target
6.80
15%
Conversion
12%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches12
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home15.5%16.7%+1.2 pp
Draw23.8%16.7%-7.1 pp
Away60.7%66.7%+5.9 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.591.7%
Over 2.591.7%
Over 3.550.0%
BTTS91.7%
Historical average
1.42–2.17
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-233.3%
2-216.7%
1-48.3%
3-28.3%
2-38.3%
Comparable corner averages
5.17–5.75
Average total10.92
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=12.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.566.7%
Over 9.558.3%
Over 10.541.7%
Over 11.533.3%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches23
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT21.7%9.7%–41.9% CI
Draw FT30.4%15.6%–50.9% CI
Away FT47.8%29.2%–67.0% CI
Remaining goals
1.43
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal82.6%
2+ goals47.8%
3+ goals13.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home43.5%
Away65.2%