Serie A · 2019/20
2020-06-28 · 18:30
11.2874.2%
X5.6416.8%
210.678.9%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Napoli
WDDLLLLWLW
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Spal
LDLLWLWLLW
3W 1D 6L · 1.00 PPM

Goals

1.30
Scored
0.90
1.60
Conceded
1.60
70%
Over 2.5
60%
70%
BTTS
60%

By half

1.10
1H goals
1.10
1.80
2H goals
1.40
90%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

5.80N=10
For
4.20N=10
3.00
Against
6.00
8.80
Total
10.20
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

moderateBoth teams scored

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.30
Goals scored
0.90
1.60
Goals conceded
1.60
2.90
Total goals
2.50
90%9/10
Over 1.5
60%6/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
30%3/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
70%7/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Napoli attack

1.30goals per match
Spal conceded1.60
Matchup

Spal attack

0.90goals per match
Napoli conceded1.60
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
0.20
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.90
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
60%6/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
10%1/10
0.80
2H goals scored
0.70
1.00
2H goals conceded
0.70
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
60%6/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
5.80N=10
Corners for
4.20N=10
3.00
Corners against
6.00
8.80
Match total
10.20
40%4/10
Over 8.5
70%7/10
30%3/10
Over 9.5
60%6/10
60%6/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.00N=10
For
3.20N=10
5.60
Match total
5.70
100%10/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

12.10N=10
Committed
16.40N=10
26.10
Match total
31.80

Shots

15.70N=10
Shots
8.60N=10
7.60
On target
3.80
8%
Conversion
10%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches26
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home74.2%88.5%+14.2 pp
Draw16.8%7.7%-9.2 pp
Away8.9%3.8%-5.1 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.580.8%
Over 2.576.9%
Over 3.550.0%
BTTS61.5%

Historical average

2.620.77

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

2-123.1%
3-123.1%
1-015.4%
5-011.5%
3-43.8%

Comparable corner averages

7.882.96
Average total10.85

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=26.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.580.8%
Over 9.573.1%
Over 10.557.7%
Over 11.530.8%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches13
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT76.9%49.7%–91.8% CI
Draw FT23.1%8.2%–50.3% CI
Away FT0.0%0.0%–22.8% CI

Remaining goals

1.77

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal84.6%
2+ goals46.2%
3+ goals23.1%

Who scores in 2H

Home84.6%
Away15.4%