League One · 2023/24
2024-04-20 · 14:00
12.5237.2%
X3.2828.5%
22.7334.3%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Northampton
WDLDWDLWWW
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Exeter
LWWWLLWWDW
6W 1D 3L · 1.90 PPM
Goals
1.20
Scored
1.70
0.70
Conceded
1.20
10%
Over 2.5
70%
40%
BTTS
60%
By half
0.80
1H goals
1.30
1.10
2H goals
1.60
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
4.40N=10
For
6.90N=10
5.20
Against
6.60
9.60
Total
13.50
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
very strongOver 8.5 corners
8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.70
0.70
Goals conceded
1.20
1.90
Total goals
2.90
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Northampton attack
1.20goals per matchExeter conceded1.20Matchup
Exeter attack
1.70goals per matchNorthampton conceded0.70Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
0.80
0.10
1H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.50
2H goals scored
0.90
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.40N=10
Corners for
6.90N=10
5.20
Corners against
6.60
9.60
Match total
13.50
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.40N=10
For
2.80N=10
3.60
Match total
4.60
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.50N=10
Committed
12.00N=10
21.00
Match total
21.00
Shots
8.90N=10
Shots
11.00N=10
2.90
On target
4.20
13%
Conversion
15%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches715
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home37.2%35.8%-1.4 pp
Draw28.5%29.0%+0.4 pp
Away34.3%35.2%+0.9 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.572.9%
Over 2.547.6%
Over 3.523.9%
BTTS54.5%
Historical average
1.27–1.26
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-115.1%
1-010.5%
1-29.7%
0-19.5%
2-17.4%
Comparable corner averages
5.12–4.56
Average total9.68
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=715.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.564.3%
Over 9.550.6%
Over 10.537.8%
Over 11.526.3%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches227
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT32.6%26.8%–38.9% CI
Draw FT38.3%32.2%–44.8% CI
Away FT29.1%23.6%–35.3% CI
Remaining goals
1.44
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal77.5%
2+ goals42.3%
3+ goals15.4%
Who scores in 2H
Home54.6%
Away52.0%