League One · 2023/24
2024-03-23 · 15:00
15.2317.9%
X3.6825.5%
21.6656.5%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Northampton
LWWWDLDWDL
4W 3D 3L · 1.50 PPM
Derby
WWWWDLWWLW
7W 1D 2L · 2.20 PPM

Goals

1.20
Scored
1.80
1.10
Conceded
0.60
40%
Over 2.5
60%
50%
BTTS
30%

By half

0.90
1H goals
1.10
1.40
2H goals
1.30
100%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

4.10N=10
For
7.50N=10
5.10
Against
4.80
9.20
Total
12.30
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongAt least one second-half goal

10/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

6/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.80
1.10
Goals conceded
0.60
2.30
Total goals
2.40
80%8/10
Over 1.5
60%6/10
40%4/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
10%1/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
50%5/10
BTTS
30%3/10
Matchup

Northampton attack

1.20goals per match
Derby conceded0.60
Matchup

Derby attack

1.80goals per match
Northampton conceded1.10
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.80
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.30
60%6/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
40%4/10
Leading at HT
50%5/10
0.60
2H goals scored
1.00
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.30
100%10/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
40%4/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.10N=10
Corners for
7.50N=10
5.10
Corners against
4.80
9.20
Match total
12.30
60%6/10
Over 8.5
90%9/10
40%4/10
Over 9.5
80%8/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
60%6/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.40N=10
For
2.20N=10
3.50
Match total
4.20
30%3/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

10.70N=10
Committed
10.40N=10
21.00
Match total
20.60

Shots

10.50N=10
Shots
13.20N=10
3.60
On target
4.60
11%
Conversion
14%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches88
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home17.9%15.9%-2.0 pp
Draw25.5%25.0%-0.5 pp
Away56.5%59.1%+2.5 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.569.3%
Over 2.545.5%
Over 3.527.3%
BTTS45.5%

Historical average

0.801.67

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-115.9%
0-212.5%
0-010.2%
1-39.1%
1-18.0%

Comparable corner averages

3.505.49
Average total8.99

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=88.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.554.5%
Over 9.540.9%
Over 10.534.1%
Over 11.525.0%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches32
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT15.6%6.9%–31.8% CI
Draw FT37.5%22.9%–54.7% CI
Away FT46.9%30.9%–63.6% CI

Remaining goals

1.34

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal71.9%
2+ goals40.6%
3+ goals18.8%

Who scores in 2H

Home28.1%
Away62.5%