League One · 2023/24
2024-03-12 · 19:45
11.6656.4%
X3.8024.6%
24.9419.0%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Derby
WDWLWWDWLW
6W 2D 2L · 2.00 PPM
Reading
WDDDLDWDLW
3W 5D 2L · 1.40 PPM
Goals
1.90
Scored
1.40
1.20
Conceded
1.40
70%
Over 2.5
50%
80%
BTTS
80%
By half
0.80
1H goals
1.50
2.30
2H goals
1.30
100%
Goal in 2H
60%
Corners
5.00N=10
For
4.00N=10
3.60
Against
5.40
8.60
Total
9.40
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongBoth teams scored
8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.90
Goals scored
1.40
1.20
Goals conceded
1.40
3.10
Total goals
2.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Derby attack
1.90goals per matchReading conceded1.40Matchup
Reading attack
1.40goals per matchDerby conceded1.20Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.70
0.20
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.30
2H goals scored
0.70
1.00
2H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.00N=10
Corners for
4.00N=10
3.60
Corners against
5.40
8.60
Match total
9.40
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.30N=10
For
2.40N=10
3.20
Match total
3.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.20N=10
Committed
14.30N=10
21.00
Match total
23.40
Shots
11.70N=10
Shots
10.50N=10
4.30
On target
4.70
16%
Conversion
13%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches494
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home56.4%57.7%+1.3 pp
Draw24.6%22.7%-2.0 pp
Away19.0%19.6%+0.7 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.576.3%
Over 2.552.4%
Over 3.527.5%
BTTS52.4%
Historical average
1.74–0.97
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-112.3%
1-011.7%
2-010.7%
1-19.9%
0-06.9%
Comparable corner averages
6.13–3.91
Average total10.04
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=494.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.0%
Over 9.554.7%
Over 10.542.3%
Over 11.532.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches148
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT48.0%40.1%–56.0% CI
Draw FT35.8%28.5%–43.8% CI
Away FT16.2%11.1%–23.0% CI
Remaining goals
1.39
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal77.0%
2+ goals40.5%
3+ goals14.2%
Who scores in 2H
Home62.2%
Away37.8%