League One · 2022/23
2023-04-18 · 19:45
13.2928.7%
X3.3128.5%
22.2042.9%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Exeter
DDLDWWWWLL
4W 3D 3L · 1.50 PPM
Derby
DWWLLLWLWD
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM

Goals

1.40
Scored
1.50
0.70
Conceded
1.70
40%
Over 2.5
60%
40%
BTTS
70%

By half

1.00
1H goals
1.40
1.10
2H goals
1.80
60%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

6.60N=10
For
5.10N=10
4.50
Against
4.90
11.10
Total
10.00
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateAt least one second-half goal

6/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.40
Goals scored
1.50
0.70
Goals conceded
1.70
2.10
Total goals
3.20
60%6/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
40%4/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
20%2/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10
40%4/10
BTTS
70%7/10
Matchup

Exeter attack

1.40goals per match
Derby conceded1.70
Matchup

Derby attack

1.50goals per match
Exeter conceded0.70
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
0.80
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.60
60%6/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
20%2/10
Leading at HT
50%5/10
0.90
2H goals scored
0.70
0.20
2H goals conceded
1.10
60%6/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
40%4/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
6.60N=10
Corners for
5.10N=10
4.50
Corners against
4.90
11.10
Match total
10.00
70%7/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
70%7/10
Over 9.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.60N=10
For
1.60N=10
3.40
Match total
3.40
50%5/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10

Fouls

11.50N=10
Committed
11.10N=10
21.40
Match total
20.40

Shots

11.90N=10
Shots
11.90N=10
4.30
On target
5.10
12%
Conversion
13%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

medium · Tier A
Comparable matches463
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home28.7%25.3%-3.4 pp
Draw28.5%24.2%-4.3 pp
Away42.9%50.5%+7.7 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.569.8%
Over 2.548.6%
Over 3.526.3%
BTTS50.5%

Historical average

1.021.56

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-113.2%
1-111.2%
1-29.7%
1-09.1%
0-08.0%

Comparable corner averages

4.555.19
Average total9.75

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=463.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.562.9%
Over 9.552.1%
Over 10.540.4%
Over 11.528.3%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches150
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT26.0%19.6%–33.6% CI
Draw FT37.3%30.0%–45.3% CI
Away FT36.7%29.4%–44.6% CI

Remaining goals

1.35

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal75.3%
2+ goals39.3%
3+ goals16.0%

Who scores in 2H

Home43.3%
Away56.7%