Championship · 2025/26
2026-04-18 · 12:30
11.8949.6%
X3.4627.1%
24.0323.3%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Derby
DWLDLWWWWW
6W 2D 2L · 2.00 PPM
Oxford
LLWLDDLWLD
2W 3D 5L · 0.90 PPM
Goals
1.50
Scored
1.00
0.80
Conceded
1.40
40%
Over 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
60%
By half
1.10
1H goals
1.30
1.20
2H goals
1.10
70%
Goal in 2H
60%
Corners
5.10N=10
For
4.00N=10
4.00
Against
8.40
9.10
Total
12.40
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateBoth teams scored
6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
moderateAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
1.00
0.80
Goals conceded
1.40
2.30
Total goals
2.40
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Derby attack
1.50goals per matchOxford conceded1.40Matchup
Oxford attack
1.00goals per matchDerby conceded0.80Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.50
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.90
2H goals scored
0.50
0.30
2H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.10N=10
Corners for
4.00N=10
4.00
Corners against
8.40
9.10
Match total
12.40
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.60N=10
For
2.70N=10
4.00
Match total
4.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.80N=10
Committed
11.00N=10
22.90
Match total
20.80
Shots
12.10N=10
Shots
9.30N=10
4.10
On target
2.10
12%
Conversion
11%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches1,088
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home49.6%48.8%-0.8 pp
Draw27.1%28.1%+1.0 pp
Away23.3%23.1%-0.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.570.3%
Over 2.546.2%
Over 3.524.1%
BTTS51.6%
Historical average
1.49–0.98
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-112.6%
1-012.6%
2-110.3%
0-09.2%
2-08.6%
Comparable corner averages
5.83–4.06
Average total9.89
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=1,088.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.562.6%
Over 9.550.9%
Over 10.539.5%
Over 11.528.5%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches371
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitystrong
Home FT36.4%31.7%–41.4% CI
Draw FT38.8%34.0%–43.9% CI
Away FT24.8%20.7%–29.4% CI
Remaining goals
1.27
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal73.0%
2+ goals35.6%
3+ goals13.5%
Who scores in 2H
Home52.0%
Away42.3%