Championship · 2025/26
2026-03-07 · 15:00
11.2674.2%
X5.4117.3%
210.968.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Derby
LLDDWLDLWW
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Sheffield Weds
LDLLLLLLLL
0W 1D 9L · 0.10 PPM
Goals
1.40
Scored
0.30
1.40
Conceded
2.20
50%
Over 2.5
50%
80%
BTTS
30%
By half
1.10
1H goals
1.00
1.70
2H goals
1.50
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
6.00N=10
For
4.20N=10
4.60
Against
6.00
10.60
Total
10.20
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.40
Goals scored
0.30
1.40
Goals conceded
2.20
2.80
Total goals
2.50
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Derby attack
1.40goals per matchSheffield Weds conceded2.20Matchup
Sheffield Weds attack
0.30goals per matchDerby conceded1.40Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.40
1H goals scored
0.10
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.00
2H goals scored
0.20
0.70
2H goals conceded
1.30
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.00N=10
Corners for
4.20N=10
4.60
Corners against
6.00
10.60
Match total
10.20
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.90N=10
For
1.40N=10
4.30
Match total
2.50
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.90N=10
Committed
11.00N=10
22.20
Match total
20.90
Shots
11.10N=10
Shots
5.40N=10
3.90
On target
1.40
13%
Conversion
6%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches133
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home74.2%83.5%+9.3 pp
Draw17.3%12.0%-5.2 pp
Away8.5%4.5%-4.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.583.5%
Over 2.562.4%
Over 3.536.1%
BTTS44.4%
Historical average
2.50–0.60
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-014.3%
2-013.5%
3-013.5%
2-111.3%
3-18.3%
Comparable corner averages
7.30–3.00
Average total10.30
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=133.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.567.7%
Over 9.554.9%
Over 10.544.4%
Over 11.538.3%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches30
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT80.0%62.7%–90.5% CI
Draw FT20.0%9.5%–37.3% CI
Away FT0.0%0.0%–11.4% CI
Remaining goals
1.73
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal93.3%
2+ goals50.0%
3+ goals20.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home93.3%
Away16.7%