Championship · 2024/25
2025-05-03 · 12:30
12.0745.6%
X2.8633.0%
24.4221.4%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Derby
LLLDLWWWDL
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Stoke
DLWLLLLDWL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM
Goals
0.60
Scored
1.00
0.70
Conceded
2.20
10%
Over 2.5
50%
10%
BTTS
60%
By half
0.70
1H goals
1.70
0.60
2H goals
1.50
50%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
4.80N=10
For
3.30N=10
4.50
Against
5.60
9.30
Total
8.90
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
0.60
Goals scored
1.00
0.70
Goals conceded
2.20
1.30
Total goals
3.20
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Derby attack
0.60goals per matchStoke conceded2.20Matchup
Stoke attack
1.00goals per matchDerby conceded0.70Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.40
0.40
1H goals conceded
1.30
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.30
2H goals scored
0.60
0.30
2H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.80N=10
Corners for
3.30N=10
4.50
Corners against
5.60
9.30
Match total
8.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.60N=10
For
2.30N=10
2.90
Match total
3.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.60N=10
Committed
10.40N=10
20.80
Match total
19.40
Shots
10.20N=10
Shots
8.40N=10
2.40
On target
2.90
6%
Conversion
12%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches38
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home45.6%44.7%-0.9 pp
Draw33.0%42.1%+9.1 pp
Away21.4%13.2%-8.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.573.7%
Over 2.539.5%
Over 3.521.1%
BTTS50.0%
Historical average
1.42–0.79
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-118.4%
0-018.4%
2-113.2%
2-010.5%
2-25.3%
Comparable corner averages
4.61–4.18
Average total8.79
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=38.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.552.6%
Over 9.544.7%
Over 10.526.3%
Over 11.515.8%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches13
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT30.8%12.7%–57.6% CI
Draw FT61.5%35.5%–82.3% CI
Away FT7.7%1.4%–33.3% CI
Remaining goals
0.92
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal46.2%
2+ goals23.1%
3+ goals15.4%
Who scores in 2H
Home38.5%
Away15.4%