Championship · 2024/25
2025-03-11 · 19:45
12.3640.2%
X3.1729.9%
23.1829.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Cardiff
LLLDDWWDWL
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Luton
LLLLLLDLLL
0W 1D 9L · 0.10 PPM
Goals
1.00
Scored
0.70
1.20
Conceded
2.30
30%
Over 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
50%
By half
0.50
1H goals
1.80
1.70
2H goals
1.20
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
5.90N=10
For
3.90N=10
5.40
Against
5.70
11.30
Total
9.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
9/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.00
Goals scored
0.70
1.20
Goals conceded
2.30
2.20
Total goals
3.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Cardiff attack
1.00goals per matchLuton conceded2.30Matchup
Luton attack
0.70goals per matchCardiff conceded1.20Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.20
1H goals scored
0.60
0.30
1H goals conceded
1.20
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.80
2H goals scored
0.10
0.90
2H goals conceded
1.10
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.90N=10
Corners for
3.90N=10
5.40
Corners against
5.70
11.30
Match total
9.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.50N=10
For
1.80N=10
3.60
Match total
3.50
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.10N=10
Committed
13.10N=10
21.30
Match total
23.30
Shots
12.70N=10
Shots
8.40N=10
4.60
On target
2.30
8%
Conversion
8%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches1,156
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home40.2%40.5%+0.3 pp
Draw29.9%31.9%+2.0 pp
Away29.8%27.6%-2.3 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.568.8%
Over 2.539.8%
Over 3.519.7%
BTTS48.4%
Historical average
1.25–1.03
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-114.8%
0-011.5%
1-011.3%
2-09.3%
2-18.9%
Comparable corner averages
5.09–4.33
Average total9.42
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=1,155.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.558.7%
Over 9.546.8%
Over 10.534.8%
Over 11.524.9%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches432
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitystrong
Home FT30.8%26.6%–35.3% CI
Draw FT44.7%40.1%–49.4% CI
Away FT24.5%20.7%–28.8% CI
Remaining goals
1.27
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal69.2%
2+ goals38.2%
3+ goals14.1%
Who scores in 2H
Home49.5%
Away43.8%