Championship · 2023/24
2024-05-04 · 12:30
12.0446.4%
X3.5027.1%
23.5726.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Swansea
WLLLLWWLWW
5W 0D 5L · 1.50 PPM
Millwall
WLLLWDLLLW
3W 1D 6L · 1.00 PPM
Goals
1.10
Scored
0.70
1.20
Conceded
1.20
50%
Over 2.5
30%
30%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.50
1H goals
0.70
0.80
2H goals
1.20
70%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
6.50N=10
For
3.80N=10
4.40
Against
7.30
10.90
Total
11.10
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.10
Goals scored
0.70
1.20
Goals conceded
1.20
2.30
Total goals
1.90
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Swansea attack
1.10goals per matchMillwall conceded1.20Matchup
Millwall attack
0.70goals per matchSwansea conceded1.20Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.30
0.90
1H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.50
2H goals scored
0.40
0.30
2H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.50N=10
Corners for
3.80N=10
4.40
Corners against
7.30
10.90
Match total
11.10
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.90N=10
For
2.10N=10
3.40
Match total
4.10
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.40N=10
Committed
13.10N=10
21.80
Match total
22.70
Shots
13.70N=10
Shots
8.00N=10
4.10
On target
2.40
8%
Conversion
9%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches330
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home46.4%46.4%-0.1 pp
Draw27.1%29.4%+2.3 pp
Away26.5%24.2%-2.3 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.573.9%
Over 2.547.3%
Over 3.528.8%
BTTS55.5%
Historical average
1.52–1.10
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-115.5%
1-011.2%
2-18.8%
0-08.5%
2-07.9%
Comparable corner averages
5.67–4.39
Average total10.06
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=330.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.568.2%
Over 9.554.8%
Over 10.541.8%
Over 11.533.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches112
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT36.6%28.3%–45.8% CI
Draw FT42.0%33.2%–51.2% CI
Away FT21.4%14.8%–29.9% CI
Remaining goals
1.45
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal75.0%
2+ goals41.1%
3+ goals17.9%
Who scores in 2H
Home58.0%
Away48.2%