Championship · 2023/24
2024-03-16 · 12:30
12.0346.9%
X3.3628.3%
23.8424.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Swansea
DDLWWLLLLW
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Cardiff
WLLWWLWLLW
5W 0D 5L · 1.50 PPM
Goals
1.10
Scored
1.00
1.70
Conceded
1.70
70%
Over 2.5
60%
70%
BTTS
50%
By half
1.70
1H goals
1.20
1.10
2H goals
1.50
70%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
6.30N=10
For
4.10N=10
3.80
Against
6.80
10.10
Total
10.90
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.10
Goals scored
1.00
1.70
Goals conceded
1.70
2.80
Total goals
2.70
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Swansea attack
1.10goals per matchCardiff conceded1.70Matchup
Cardiff attack
1.00goals per matchSwansea conceded1.70Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.40
1.10
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.50
2H goals scored
0.60
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.30N=10
Corners for
4.10N=10
3.80
Corners against
6.80
10.10
Match total
10.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.80N=10
For
2.40N=10
3.60
Match total
4.40
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.50N=10
Committed
11.00N=10
21.50
Match total
20.80
Shots
13.00N=10
Shots
9.90N=10
3.80
On target
3.30
8%
Conversion
10%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches792
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home46.9%48.5%+1.6 pp
Draw28.3%27.8%-0.5 pp
Away24.8%23.7%-1.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.571.1%
Over 2.546.1%
Over 3.524.1%
BTTS51.3%
Historical average
1.51–0.99
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-112.4%
1-011.9%
2-110.9%
2-09.7%
0-08.7%
Comparable corner averages
5.57–4.26
Average total9.83
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=792.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.562.2%
Over 9.549.4%
Over 10.538.1%
Over 11.528.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches258
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT39.5%33.8%–45.6% CI
Draw FT38.0%32.3%–44.0% CI
Away FT22.5%17.8%–28.0% CI
Remaining goals
1.26
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal73.3%
2+ goals36.0%
3+ goals12.4%
Who scores in 2H
Home54.3%
Away39.5%