Championship · 2019/20
2020-07-22 · 19:30
12.7035.0%
X3.2329.2%
22.6435.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Birmingham
LDWDDLDLLD
1W 5D 4L · 0.80 PPM
Derby
DLWLLWWWLL
4W 1D 5L · 1.30 PPM
Goals
1.50
Scored
1.80
2.20
Conceded
1.90
70%
Over 2.5
80%
90%
BTTS
80%
By half
1.80
1H goals
1.50
1.90
2H goals
2.20
90%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
4.90N=10
For
3.50N=10
4.90
Against
6.40
9.80
Total
9.90
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
very strongBoth teams scored
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
1.80
2.20
Goals conceded
1.90
3.70
Total goals
3.70
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Birmingham attack
1.50goals per matchDerby conceded1.90Matchup
Derby attack
1.80goals per matchBirmingham conceded2.20Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.80
1.00
1H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.70
2H goals scored
1.00
1.20
2H goals conceded
1.20
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.90N=10
Corners for
3.50N=10
4.90
Corners against
6.40
9.80
Match total
9.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.50N=10
For
1.90N=10
3.50
Match total
2.80
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.80N=10
Committed
11.70N=10
24.70
Match total
21.80
Shots
14.70N=10
Shots
10.10N=10
4.20
On target
3.40
10%
Conversion
18%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches87
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home35.0%39.1%+4.1 pp
Draw29.2%25.3%-4.0 pp
Away35.8%35.6%-0.1 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.578.2%
Over 2.559.8%
Over 3.528.7%
BTTS63.2%
Historical average
1.43–1.37
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-113.8%
2-112.6%
1-211.5%
1-09.2%
0-18.0%
Comparable corner averages
5.47–4.99
Average total10.46
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=87.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.571.3%
Over 9.558.6%
Over 10.549.4%
Over 11.539.1%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches29
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT37.9%22.7%–56.0% CI
Draw FT27.6%14.7%–45.7% CI
Away FT34.5%19.9%–52.7% CI
Remaining goals
1.79
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal86.2%
2+ goals51.7%
3+ goals31.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home58.6%
Away69.0%