Championship · 2019/20
2020-07-04 · 12:30
12.4239.1%
X3.1829.8%
23.0531.1%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Derby
DLWWWWDDWW
6W 3D 1L · 2.10 PPM
Nott'm Forest
DLWDWLDWDD
3W 5D 2L · 1.40 PPM
Goals
1.70
Scored
1.40
0.70
Conceded
1.20
50%
Over 2.5
50%
60%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.00
1H goals
1.10
1.40
2H goals
1.50
90%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
5.20N=10
For
5.30N=10
5.80
Against
6.90
11.00
Total
12.20
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateBoth teams scored
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
very strongOver 8.5 corners
8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.70
Goals scored
1.40
0.70
Goals conceded
1.20
2.40
Total goals
2.60
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Derby attack
1.70goals per matchNott'm Forest conceded1.20Matchup
Nott'm Forest attack
1.40goals per matchDerby conceded0.70Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.50
0.20
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.90
2H goals scored
0.90
0.50
2H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.20N=10
Corners for
5.30N=10
5.80
Corners against
6.90
11.00
Match total
12.20
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.80N=10
For
2.00N=10
3.40
Match total
4.00
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.20N=10
Committed
12.50N=10
24.00
Match total
24.20
Shots
12.40N=10
Shots
11.90N=10
5.20
On target
3.20
14%
Conversion
12%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches146
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home39.1%41.8%+2.6 pp
Draw29.8%34.2%+4.5 pp
Away31.1%24.0%-7.1 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.571.9%
Over 2.544.5%
Over 3.528.1%
BTTS56.8%
Historical average
1.37–1.21
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-118.5%
1-015.8%
2-110.3%
0-07.5%
2-26.2%
Comparable corner averages
5.20–5.01
Average total10.21
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=146.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.563.7%
Over 9.554.8%
Over 10.545.9%
Over 11.532.9%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches45
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT33.3%21.4%–47.9% CI
Draw FT48.9%35.0%–63.0% CI
Away FT17.8%9.3%–31.3% CI
Remaining goals
1.49
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal75.6%
2+ goals44.4%
3+ goals15.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home62.2%
Away48.9%