Championship · 2019/20
2020-01-28 · 19:45
13.1130.5%
X3.4627.4%
22.2542.1%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Luton
LDWLLWWLDL
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Derby
DDLLLLLLDD
0W 4D 6L · 0.40 PPM

Goals

1.40
Scored
0.60
1.60
Conceded
1.90
80%
Over 2.5
50%
70%
BTTS
40%

By half

0.80
1H goals
0.90
2.20
2H goals
1.60
100%
Goal in 2H
100%

Corners

5.80N=10
For
3.50N=10
6.30
Against
7.10
12.10
Total
10.60
Signals

Key historical patterns

very strongAt least one second-half goal

10/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

very strongOver 8.5 corners

10/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.40
Goals scored
0.60
1.60
Goals conceded
1.90
3.00
Total goals
2.50
90%9/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
80%8/10
Over 2.5
50%5/10
10%1/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
70%7/10
BTTS
40%4/10
Matchup

Luton attack

1.40goals per match
Derby conceded1.90
Matchup

Derby attack

0.60goals per match
Luton conceded1.60
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.20
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.70
50%5/10
Over 0.5 1H
60%6/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
10%1/10
1.10
2H goals scored
0.40
1.10
2H goals conceded
1.20
100%10/10
Over 0.5 2H
100%10/10
80%8/10
More goals in 2H
70%7/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
5.80N=10
Corners for
3.50N=10
6.30
Corners against
7.10
12.10
Match total
10.60
100%10/10
Over 8.5
80%8/10
80%8/10
Over 9.5
70%7/10
80%8/10
Team over 4.5
30%3/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

0.80N=10
For
2.50N=10
2.40
Match total
4.10
30%3/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

8.00N=10
Committed
14.10N=10
21.90
Match total
26.10

Shots

11.80N=10
Shots
9.20N=10
3.40
On target
3.20
12%
Conversion
7%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches37
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home30.5%24.3%-6.2 pp
Draw27.4%27.0%-0.4 pp
Away42.1%48.6%+6.5 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.567.6%
Over 2.554.1%
Over 3.521.6%
BTTS45.9%

Historical average

0.951.49

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-013.5%
1-213.5%
0-310.8%
0-110.8%
1-08.1%

Comparable corner averages

5.864.81
Average total10.68

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=37.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.578.4%
Over 9.570.3%
Over 10.551.4%
Over 11.537.8%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches12
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT8.3%1.5%–35.4% CI
Draw FT58.3%32.0%–80.7% CI
Away FT33.3%13.8%–60.9% CI

Remaining goals

0.83

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal50.0%
2+ goals25.0%
3+ goals8.3%

Who scores in 2H

Home16.7%
Away50.0%