Premier League · 2025/26
2026-05-24 · 16:00
11.2873.1%
X5.9315.8%
28.3911.1%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Man City
WDDWWWDWWW
7W 3D 0L · 2.40 PPM
Aston Villa
WLDWDLLDLD
2W 4D 4L · 1.00 PPM
Goals
2.20
Scored
1.00
0.60
Conceded
1.50
70%
Over 2.5
40%
50%
BTTS
60%
By half
1.70
1H goals
0.80
1.10
2H goals
1.70
70%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
6.60N=10
For
5.10N=10
3.10
Against
4.60
9.70
Total
9.70
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.20
Goals scored
1.00
0.60
Goals conceded
1.50
2.80
Total goals
2.50
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Man City attack
2.20goals per matchAston Villa conceded1.50Matchup
Aston Villa attack
1.00goals per matchMan City conceded0.60Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.50
1H goals scored
0.40
0.20
1H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.70
2H goals scored
0.60
0.40
2H goals conceded
1.10
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.60N=10
Corners for
5.10N=10
3.10
Corners against
4.60
9.70
Match total
9.70
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.70N=10
For
1.90N=10
4.60
Match total
4.10
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.30N=10
Committed
9.70N=10
21.90
Match total
22.00
Shots
16.80N=10
Shots
12.10N=10
5.90
On target
4.60
13%
Conversion
8%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches39
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home73.1%61.5%-11.5 pp
Draw15.8%23.1%+7.3 pp
Away11.1%15.4%+4.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.587.2%
Over 2.571.8%
Over 3.548.7%
BTTS66.7%
Historical average
2.56–1.23
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-112.8%
1-110.3%
4-010.3%
4-15.1%
5-25.1%
Comparable corner averages
6.95–3.46
Average total10.41
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=39.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.576.9%
Over 9.569.2%
Over 10.556.4%
Over 11.538.5%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches13
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT53.8%29.1%–76.8% CI
Draw FT38.5%17.7%–64.5% CI
Away FT7.7%1.4%–33.3% CI
Remaining goals
2.00
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal92.3%
2+ goals61.5%
3+ goals23.1%
Who scores in 2H
Home84.6%
Away38.5%