Premier League · 2025/26
2026-05-15 · 20:00
12.7634.0%
X3.4427.3%
22.4338.7%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Aston Villa
WWLLWDLWWL
5W 1D 4L · 1.60 PPM
Liverpool
WDDLWWLLWL
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM
Goals
1.50
Scored
1.40
1.40
Conceded
1.40
50%
Over 2.5
70%
60%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.40
1H goals
0.90
1.50
2H goals
1.90
90%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
5.90N=10
For
6.50N=10
4.50
Against
3.10
10.40
Total
9.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateBoth teams scored
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
9/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
1.40
1.40
Goals conceded
1.40
2.90
Total goals
2.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Aston Villa attack
1.50goals per matchLiverpool conceded1.40Matchup
Liverpool attack
1.40goals per matchAston Villa conceded1.40Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.30
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.90
2H goals scored
1.10
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.90N=10
Corners for
6.50N=10
4.50
Corners against
3.10
10.40
Match total
9.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.20N=10
For
1.50N=10
3.90
Match total
3.60
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.00N=10
Committed
9.30N=10
22.50
Match total
19.20
Shots
15.10N=10
Shots
13.10N=10
4.20
On target
4.00
10%
Conversion
11%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches319
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home34.0%34.5%+0.4 pp
Draw27.3%30.1%+2.8 pp
Away38.7%35.4%-3.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.581.5%
Over 2.555.2%
Over 3.534.2%
BTTS62.7%
Historical average
1.43–1.48
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-113.5%
2-18.5%
1-28.2%
0-07.8%
2-06.6%
Comparable corner averages
5.12–5.00
Average total10.12
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=319.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.567.4%
Over 9.555.5%
Over 10.543.9%
Over 11.530.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches82
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT30.5%21.6%–41.1% CI
Draw FT47.6%37.1%–58.2% CI
Away FT22.0%14.4%–32.1% CI
Remaining goals
1.63
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal69.5%
2+ goals50.0%
3+ goals23.2%
Who scores in 2H
Home53.7%
Away47.6%