Premier League · 2025/26
2026-04-22 · 20:00
116.535.7%
X8.3011.4%
21.1482.9%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Burnley
LLDLDDLLDL
0W 4D 6L · 0.40 PPM
Man City
WWWDLDWWDW
6W 3D 1L · 2.10 PPM

Goals

1.00
Scored
1.90
1.90
Conceded
1.10
50%
Over 2.5
60%
50%
BTTS
50%

By half

1.70
1H goals
1.00
1.20
2H goals
2.00
60%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

4.70N=10
For
5.80N=10
4.60
Against
3.60
9.30
Total
9.40
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateAt least one second-half goal

6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.00
Goals scored
1.90
1.90
Goals conceded
1.10
2.90
Total goals
3.00
70%7/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
50%5/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
50%5/10
BTTS
50%5/10
Matchup

Burnley attack

1.00goals per match
Man City conceded1.10
Matchup

Man City attack

1.90goals per match
Burnley conceded1.90
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
0.80
1.20
1H goals conceded
0.20
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
50%5/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
0.50
2H goals scored
1.10
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.90
60%6/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
10%1/10
More goals in 2H
60%6/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.70N=10
Corners for
5.80N=10
4.60
Corners against
3.60
9.30
Match total
9.40
50%5/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
30%3/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.40N=10
For
2.00N=10
2.30
Match total
3.60
20%2/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

8.90N=10
Committed
9.50N=10
16.80
Match total
20.20

Shots

12.90N=10
Shots
14.30N=10
3.60
On target
4.90
8%
Conversion
13%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches56
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home5.7%12.5%+6.8 pp
Draw11.4%8.9%-2.5 pp
Away82.9%78.6%-4.3 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.594.6%
Over 2.580.4%
Over 3.558.9%
BTTS60.7%

Historical average

0.952.95

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-312.5%
0-412.5%
1-210.7%
0-28.9%
0-37.1%

Comparable corner averages

3.187.29
Average total10.46

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=56.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.573.2%
Over 9.558.9%
Over 10.548.2%
Over 11.539.3%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches16
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT18.8%6.6%–43.0% CI
Draw FT25.0%10.2%–49.5% CI
Away FT56.3%33.2%–76.9% CI

Remaining goals

1.88

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal87.5%
2+ goals62.5%
3+ goals31.3%

Who scores in 2H

Home31.3%
Away75.0%