Premier League · 2025/26
2026-04-21 · 20:00
12.4438.6%
X3.6226.0%
22.6635.4%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Brighton
LDDWDDLWLW
3W 4D 3L · 1.30 PPM
Chelsea
LDDDLWWLWL
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Goals
1.20
Scored
1.60
1.10
Conceded
1.60
30%
Over 2.5
80%
60%
BTTS
80%
By half
1.20
1H goals
1.50
1.10
2H goals
1.70
70%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
5.30N=10
For
5.50N=10
4.70
Against
4.30
10.00
Total
9.80
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateBoth teams scored
6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.60
1.10
Goals conceded
1.60
2.30
Total goals
3.20
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Brighton attack
1.20goals per matchChelsea conceded1.60Matchup
Chelsea attack
1.60goals per matchBrighton conceded1.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.70
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.60
2H goals scored
0.90
0.50
2H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.30N=10
Corners for
5.50N=10
4.70
Corners against
4.30
10.00
Match total
9.80
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.20N=10
For
2.50N=10
4.70
Match total
4.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.90N=10
Committed
11.00N=10
22.30
Match total
21.80
Shots
14.50N=10
Shots
12.10N=10
4.50
On target
4.60
8%
Conversion
13%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier B
Comparable matches415
Method1X2 + O/U
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home38.6%36.4%-2.2 pp
Draw26.0%26.3%+0.3 pp
Away35.4%37.3%+2.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.581.0%
Over 2.558.8%
Over 3.534.2%
BTTS61.4%
Historical average
1.50–1.46
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-112.3%
1-210.4%
2-17.7%
0-06.5%
1-06.5%
Comparable corner averages
5.18–4.85
Average total10.03
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=415.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.564.8%
Over 9.553.3%
Over 10.543.4%
Over 11.534.5%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches104
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT32.7%24.4%–42.2% CI
Draw FT40.4%31.5%–50.0% CI
Away FT26.9%19.3%–36.2% CI
Remaining goals
1.48
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal74.0%
2+ goals47.1%
3+ goals22.1%
Who scores in 2H
Home53.8%
Away49.0%