Premier League · 2025/26
2026-04-21 · 20:00
12.4438.6%
X3.6226.0%
22.6635.4%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Brighton
LDDWDDLWLW
3W 4D 3L · 1.30 PPM
Chelsea
LDDDLWWLWL
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM

Goals

1.20
Scored
1.60
1.10
Conceded
1.60
30%
Over 2.5
80%
60%
BTTS
80%

By half

1.20
1H goals
1.50
1.10
2H goals
1.70
70%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

5.30N=10
For
5.50N=10
4.70
Against
4.30
10.00
Total
9.80
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateBoth teams scored

6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

strongAt least one second-half goal

7/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.60
1.10
Goals conceded
1.60
2.30
Total goals
3.20
70%7/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
30%3/10
Over 2.5
80%8/10
10%1/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
BTTS
80%8/10
Matchup

Brighton attack

1.20goals per match
Chelsea conceded1.60
Matchup

Chelsea attack

1.60goals per match
Brighton conceded1.10
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.70
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.80
60%6/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
20%2/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
0.60
2H goals scored
0.90
0.50
2H goals conceded
0.80
70%7/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
5.30N=10
Corners for
5.50N=10
4.70
Corners against
4.30
10.00
Match total
9.80
40%4/10
Over 8.5
70%7/10
40%4/10
Over 9.5
60%6/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.20N=10
For
2.50N=10
4.70
Match total
4.20
90%9/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10

Fouls

10.90N=10
Committed
11.00N=10
22.30
Match total
21.80

Shots

14.50N=10
Shots
12.10N=10
4.50
On target
4.60
8%
Conversion
13%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

medium · Tier B
Comparable matches415
Method1X2 + O/U
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home38.6%36.4%-2.2 pp
Draw26.0%26.3%+0.3 pp
Away35.4%37.3%+2.0 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.581.0%
Over 2.558.8%
Over 3.534.2%
BTTS61.4%

Historical average

1.501.46

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-112.3%
1-210.4%
2-17.7%
0-06.5%
1-06.5%

Comparable corner averages

5.184.85
Average total10.03

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=415.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.564.8%
Over 9.553.3%
Over 10.543.4%
Over 11.534.5%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches104
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT32.7%24.4%–42.2% CI
Draw FT40.4%31.5%–50.0% CI
Away FT26.9%19.3%–36.2% CI

Remaining goals

1.48

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal74.0%
2+ goals47.1%
3+ goals22.1%

Who scores in 2H

Home53.8%
Away49.0%