Premier League · 2025/26
2026-04-12 · 16:30
13.0830.5%
X3.8024.7%
22.1044.8%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Chelsea
WDWLDWWDDL
4W 4D 2L · 1.60 PPM
Man City
LWWWDLDWWD
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM

Goals

1.70
Scored
1.70
1.10
Conceded
1.30
50%
Over 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
60%

By half

1.30
1H goals
1.00
1.50
2H goals
2.00
70%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

6.80N=10
For
5.50N=10
4.00
Against
3.70
10.80
Total
9.20
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateBoth teams scored

6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

strongAt least one second-half goal

7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.70
Goals scored
1.70
1.10
Goals conceded
1.30
2.80
Total goals
3.00
90%9/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
50%5/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
30%3/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
60%6/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Chelsea attack

1.70goals per match
Man City conceded1.30
Matchup

Man City attack

1.70goals per match
Chelsea conceded1.10
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.80
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.20
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
50%5/10
50%5/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
0.90
2H goals scored
0.90
0.60
2H goals conceded
1.10
70%7/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
60%6/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
6.80N=10
Corners for
5.50N=10
4.00
Corners against
3.70
10.80
Match total
9.20
80%8/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
70%7/10
Over 9.5
30%3/10
60%6/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.30N=10
For
2.20N=10
4.70
Match total
3.60
70%7/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

10.70N=10
Committed
8.90N=10
22.20
Match total
19.90

Shots

15.20N=10
Shots
14.20N=10
4.00
On target
4.50
11%
Conversion
12%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches170
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home30.5%25.3%-5.2 pp
Draw24.7%27.1%+2.3 pp
Away44.8%47.6%+2.9 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.591.8%
Over 2.568.2%
Over 3.544.1%
BTTS69.4%

Historical average

1.481.91

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

2-211.8%
1-111.8%
1-211.2%
0-27.1%
2-16.5%

Comparable corner averages

4.835.67
Average total10.50

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=170.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.568.8%
Over 9.557.1%
Over 10.551.8%
Over 11.538.8%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches33
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT21.2%10.7%–37.8% CI
Draw FT33.3%19.8%–50.4% CI
Away FT45.5%29.8%–62.0% CI

Remaining goals

2.12

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal87.9%
2+ goals72.7%
3+ goals30.3%

Who scores in 2H

Home57.6%
Away69.7%