Premier League · 2025/26
2026-04-11 · 15:00
14.4821.1%
X3.9324.0%
21.7254.9%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Burnley
LLLDLDDLLD
0W 4D 6L · 0.40 PPM
Brighton
DWLLDDLLWW
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Goals
1.00
Scored
1.00
1.90
Conceded
1.00
50%
Over 2.5
30%
50%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.70
1H goals
1.00
1.20
2H goals
1.00
60%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
4.00N=10
For
3.90N=10
5.30
Against
5.90
9.30
Total
9.80
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateAt least one second-half goal
6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.00
Goals scored
1.00
1.90
Goals conceded
1.00
2.90
Total goals
2.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Burnley attack
1.00goals per matchBrighton conceded1.00Matchup
Brighton attack
1.00goals per matchBurnley conceded1.90Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
0.50
1.20
1H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.50
2H goals scored
0.50
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.00N=10
Corners for
3.90N=10
5.30
Corners against
5.90
9.30
Match total
9.80
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.40N=10
For
2.90N=10
2.50
Match total
4.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
9.50N=10
Committed
13.10N=10
17.10
Match total
21.90
Shots
12.70N=10
Shots
11.30N=10
3.30
On target
4.10
8%
Conversion
9%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches345
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home21.1%16.8%-4.3 pp
Draw24.0%22.0%-2.0 pp
Away54.9%61.2%+6.3 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.579.4%
Over 2.558.8%
Over 3.534.2%
BTTS56.8%
Historical average
0.99–1.95
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-211.6%
0-110.7%
1-19.3%
0-29.0%
1-37.2%
Comparable corner averages
4.23–5.60
Average total9.83
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=345.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.563.5%
Over 9.549.9%
Over 10.537.7%
Over 11.526.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches93
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT18.3%11.7%–27.3% CI
Draw FT32.3%23.6%–42.3% CI
Away FT49.5%39.5%–59.4% CI
Remaining goals
1.46
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal75.3%
2+ goals43.0%
3+ goals19.4%
Who scores in 2H
Home34.4%
Away63.4%