Premier League · 2025/26
2026-03-04 · 20:15
12.5636.9%
X3.6625.8%
22.5337.3%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Newcastle
WWDWDWWLLL
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Man United
DDWWLDDWDW
4W 5D 1L · 1.70 PPM

Goals

2.00
Scored
1.90
1.80
Conceded
1.40
80%
Over 2.5
70%
80%
BTTS
90%

By half

1.50
1H goals
1.00
2.30
2H goals
2.30
100%
Goal in 2H
100%

Corners

7.30N=10
For
4.20N=10
5.30
Against
5.50
12.60
Total
9.70
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongOver 2.5 goals

8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

very strongBoth teams scored

8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

10/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

9/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
2.00
Goals scored
1.90
1.80
Goals conceded
1.40
3.80
Total goals
3.30
100%10/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
80%8/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10
80%8/10
BTTS
90%9/10
Matchup

Newcastle attack

2.00goals per match
Man United conceded1.40
Matchup

Man United attack

1.90goals per match
Newcastle conceded1.80
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.50
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.50
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
1.20
2H goals scored
1.40
1.10
2H goals conceded
0.90
100%10/10
Over 0.5 2H
100%10/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
90%9/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
7.30N=10
Corners for
4.20N=10
5.30
Corners against
5.50
12.60
Match total
9.70
90%9/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
80%8/10
Over 9.5
60%6/10
90%9/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.50N=10
For
1.30N=10
4.30
Match total
3.30
70%7/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10

Fouls

10.30N=10
Committed
9.20N=10
22.50
Match total
20.50

Shots

15.20N=10
Shots
15.40N=10
6.10
On target
5.20
13%
Conversion
12%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches142
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home36.9%38.7%+1.8 pp
Draw25.8%26.8%+1.0 pp
Away37.3%34.5%-2.8 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.586.6%
Over 2.556.3%
Over 3.540.1%
BTTS64.1%

Historical average

1.631.58

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-116.2%
2-17.0%
0-27.0%
2-07.0%
2-26.3%

Comparable corner averages

5.465.14
Average total10.60

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=142.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.565.5%
Over 9.561.3%
Over 10.547.9%
Over 11.536.6%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches33
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT30.3%17.4%–47.3% CI
Draw FT30.3%17.4%–47.3% CI
Away FT39.4%24.7%–56.3% CI

Remaining goals

1.55

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal87.9%
2+ goals45.5%
3+ goals15.2%

Who scores in 2H

Home54.5%
Away63.6%