Premier League · 2025/26
2026-03-04 · 19:30
15.0318.7%
X3.9224.0%
21.6457.3%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Brighton
WWLDDWDDLW
4W 4D 2L · 1.60 PPM
Arsenal
DDLWWDWDDW
4W 5D 1L · 1.70 PPM

Goals

1.50
Scored
1.90
1.00
Conceded
1.10
40%
Over 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
70%

By half

1.10
1H goals
1.00
1.40
2H goals
2.00
80%
Goal in 2H
80%

Corners

5.60N=10
For
4.90N=10
4.70
Against
3.40
10.30
Total
8.30
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateBoth teams scored

6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
1.90
1.00
Goals conceded
1.10
2.50
Total goals
3.00
80%8/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
40%4/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
10%1/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
BTTS
70%7/10
Matchup

Brighton attack

1.50goals per match
Arsenal conceded1.10
Matchup

Arsenal attack

1.90goals per match
Brighton conceded1.00
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.60
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.40
60%6/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
0.90
2H goals scored
1.30
0.50
2H goals conceded
0.70
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
80%8/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
70%7/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
5.60N=10
Corners for
4.90N=10
4.70
Corners against
3.40
10.30
Match total
8.30
50%5/10
Over 8.5
40%4/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.70N=10
For
1.80N=10
3.90
Match total
3.50
80%8/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10

Fouls

10.40N=10
Committed
9.80N=10
21.10
Match total
20.30

Shots

14.60N=10
Shots
13.10N=10
4.70
On target
5.10
10%
Conversion
15%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches161
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home18.7%14.3%-4.4 pp
Draw24.0%21.7%-2.2 pp
Away57.3%64.0%+6.6 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.570.2%
Over 2.549.7%
Over 3.526.1%
BTTS49.1%

Historical average

0.811.75

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-114.9%
1-213.0%
0-210.6%
1-39.9%
1-19.3%

Comparable corner averages

3.785.94
Average total9.72

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=161.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.564.6%
Over 9.549.1%
Over 10.532.9%
Over 11.524.8%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches46
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT17.4%9.1%–30.7% CI
Draw FT43.5%30.2%–57.8% CI
Away FT39.1%26.4%–53.5% CI

Remaining goals

1.04

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal69.6%
2+ goals28.3%
3+ goals6.5%

Who scores in 2H

Home34.8%
Away54.3%