Premier League · 2024/25
2025-05-25 · 16:00
19.4510.1%
X5.8316.3%
21.2973.6%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Southampton
LLLLLLDLLD
0W 2D 8L · 0.20 PPM
Arsenal
WWDWWDDDWD
5W 5D 0L · 2.00 PPM

Goals

0.50
Scored
2.00
2.40
Conceded
0.70
70%
Over 2.5
40%
50%
BTTS
60%

By half

1.00
1H goals
1.30
1.90
2H goals
1.40
90%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

2.60N=10
For
6.40N=10
6.90
Against
2.40
9.50
Total
8.80
Signals

Key historical patterns

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
0.50
Goals scored
2.00
2.40
Goals conceded
0.70
2.90
Total goals
2.70
80%8/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
40%4/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10
50%5/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Southampton attack

0.50goals per match
Arsenal conceded0.70
Matchup

Arsenal attack

2.00goals per match
Southampton conceded2.40
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.80
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.50
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
20%2/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
0.20
2H goals scored
1.20
1.70
2H goals conceded
0.20
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
60%6/10
More goals in 2H
20%2/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
2.60N=10
Corners for
6.40N=10
6.90
Corners against
2.40
9.50
Match total
8.80
60%6/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
20%2/10
Team over 4.5
70%7/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.50N=10
For
1.30N=10
2.30
Match total
2.50
20%2/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10

Fouls

11.50N=10
Committed
10.80N=10
20.50
Match total
22.70

Shots

8.90N=10
Shots
14.00N=10
2.60
On target
4.80
6%
Conversion
14%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches73
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home10.1%8.2%-1.8 pp
Draw16.3%12.3%-4.0 pp
Away73.6%79.5%+5.8 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.586.3%
Over 2.568.5%
Over 3.545.2%
BTTS49.3%

Historical average

0.852.63

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-312.3%
0-212.3%
1-29.6%
1-39.6%
0-18.2%

Comparable corner averages

3.327.19
Average total10.51

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=73.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.565.8%
Over 9.550.7%
Over 10.538.4%
Over 11.532.9%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches17
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT5.9%1.0%–27.0% CI
Draw FT29.4%13.3%–53.1% CI
Away FT64.7%41.3%–82.7% CI

Remaining goals

1.76

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal82.4%
2+ goals52.9%
3+ goals17.6%

Who scores in 2H

Home29.4%
Away76.5%