Premier League · 2024/25
2025-05-11 · 12:00
12.1344.7%
X3.7625.3%
23.1830.0%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Newcastle
WWWLLWWWWW
8W 0D 2L · 2.40 PPM
Chelsea
WDLDLLLLDW
2W 3D 5L · 0.90 PPM

Goals

3.00
Scored
0.90
1.10
Conceded
1.60
100%
Over 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
50%

By half

2.00
1H goals
1.20
2.10
2H goals
1.30
100%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

6.30N=10
For
5.80N=10
4.20
Against
3.70
10.50
Total
9.50
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongAt least one second-half goal

10/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

strongOver 8.5 corners

8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
3.00
Goals scored
0.90
1.10
Goals conceded
1.60
4.10
Total goals
2.50
100%10/10
Over 1.5
70%7/10
100%10/10
Over 2.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
50%5/10
BTTS
50%5/10
Matchup

Newcastle attack

3.00goals per match
Chelsea conceded1.60
Matchup

Chelsea attack

0.90goals per match
Newcastle conceded1.10
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
1.60
1H goals scored
0.40
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.80
100%10/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
80%8/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
1.40
2H goals scored
0.50
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.80
100%10/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
70%7/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
6.30N=10
Corners for
5.80N=10
4.20
Corners against
3.70
10.50
Match total
9.50
80%8/10
Over 8.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
70%7/10
Team over 4.5
60%6/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.50N=10
For
2.50N=10
4.30
Match total
4.50
50%5/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

9.70N=10
Committed
11.30N=10
22.70
Match total
23.60

Shots

17.60N=10
Shots
13.90N=10
6.00
On target
4.50
17%
Conversion
6%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches149
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home44.7%38.9%-5.8 pp
Draw25.3%24.2%-1.2 pp
Away30.0%36.9%+7.0 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.583.2%
Over 2.569.8%
Over 3.538.3%
BTTS63.1%

Historical average

1.601.60

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

2-112.1%
0-010.7%
1-210.1%
3-15.4%
1-15.4%

Comparable corner averages

5.624.48
Average total10.09

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=149.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.568.5%
Over 9.556.4%
Over 10.543.0%
Over 11.531.5%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches38
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT23.7%13.0%–39.2% CI
Draw FT47.4%32.5%–62.7% CI
Away FT28.9%17.0%–44.8% CI

Remaining goals

1.26

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal57.9%
2+ goals42.1%
3+ goals23.7%

Who scores in 2H

Home34.2%
Away39.5%