Premier League · 2024/25
2025-04-19 · 17:30
12.3640.4%
X3.6326.2%
22.8533.4%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Aston Villa
WWWDWDDDWW
6W 4D 0L · 2.20 PPM
Newcastle
DLWWWWLLWW
6W 1D 3L · 1.90 PPM

Goals

1.80
Scored
1.80
1.10
Conceded
1.30
70%
Over 2.5
60%
90%
BTTS
40%

By half

1.40
1H goals
2.20
1.50
2H goals
0.90
90%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

8.00N=10
For
4.70N=10
3.40
Against
5.30
11.40
Total
10.00
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
1.80
1.10
Goals conceded
1.30
2.90
Total goals
3.10
90%9/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
30%3/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10
90%9/10
BTTS
40%4/10
Matchup

Aston Villa attack

1.80goals per match
Newcastle conceded1.30
Matchup

Newcastle attack

1.80goals per match
Aston Villa conceded1.10
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
1.10
1H goals scored
1.40
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.80
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
60%6/10
Leading at HT
50%5/10
0.70
2H goals scored
0.40
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.50
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
20%2/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
8.00N=10
Corners for
4.70N=10
3.40
Corners against
5.30
11.40
Match total
10.00
70%7/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
70%7/10
Team over 4.5
30%3/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.40N=10
For
1.10N=10
3.70
Match total
2.40
70%7/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10

Fouls

11.20N=10
Committed
10.10N=10
23.80
Match total
19.80

Shots

15.90N=10
Shots
10.60N=10
5.80
On target
3.60
11%
Conversion
17%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches265
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home40.4%36.2%-4.1 pp
Draw26.2%26.4%+0.2 pp
Away33.4%37.4%+3.9 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.581.9%
Over 2.560.4%
Over 3.537.0%
BTTS60.8%

Historical average

1.491.52

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-110.9%
1-28.7%
2-27.9%
2-17.5%
1-07.2%

Comparable corner averages

5.364.84
Average total10.20

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=264.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.565.5%
Over 9.555.3%
Over 10.544.7%
Over 11.534.8%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches67
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT34.3%24.1%–46.3% CI
Draw FT43.3%32.1%–55.2% CI
Away FT22.4%14.1%–33.7% CI

Remaining goals

1.48

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal73.1%
2+ goals44.8%
3+ goals20.9%

Who scores in 2H

Home55.2%
Away44.8%