Premier League · 2024/25
2025-04-19 · 17:30
12.3640.4%
X3.6326.2%
22.8533.4%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Aston Villa
WWWDWDDDWW
6W 4D 0L · 2.20 PPM
Newcastle
DLWWWWLLWW
6W 1D 3L · 1.90 PPM
Goals
1.80
Scored
1.80
1.10
Conceded
1.30
70%
Over 2.5
60%
90%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.40
1H goals
2.20
1.50
2H goals
0.90
90%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
8.00N=10
For
4.70N=10
3.40
Against
5.30
11.40
Total
10.00
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
1.80
1.10
Goals conceded
1.30
2.90
Total goals
3.10
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Aston Villa attack
1.80goals per matchNewcastle conceded1.30Matchup
Newcastle attack
1.80goals per matchAston Villa conceded1.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.10
1H goals scored
1.40
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.70
2H goals scored
0.40
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
8.00N=10
Corners for
4.70N=10
3.40
Corners against
5.30
11.40
Match total
10.00
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.40N=10
For
1.10N=10
3.70
Match total
2.40
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.20N=10
Committed
10.10N=10
23.80
Match total
19.80
Shots
15.90N=10
Shots
10.60N=10
5.80
On target
3.60
11%
Conversion
17%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches265
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home40.4%36.2%-4.1 pp
Draw26.2%26.4%+0.2 pp
Away33.4%37.4%+3.9 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.581.9%
Over 2.560.4%
Over 3.537.0%
BTTS60.8%
Historical average
1.49–1.52
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-110.9%
1-28.7%
2-27.9%
2-17.5%
1-07.2%
Comparable corner averages
5.36–4.84
Average total10.20
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=264.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.5%
Over 9.555.3%
Over 10.544.7%
Over 11.534.8%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches67
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT34.3%24.1%–46.3% CI
Draw FT43.3%32.1%–55.2% CI
Away FT22.4%14.1%–33.7% CI
Remaining goals
1.48
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal73.1%
2+ goals44.8%
3+ goals20.9%
Who scores in 2H
Home55.2%
Away44.8%