Premier League · 2024/25
2025-04-12 · 15:00
15.6516.9%
X4.4221.6%
21.5561.5%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Southampton
LLLLLLLLLD
0W 1D 9L · 0.10 PPM
Aston Villa
LLLLWDLLWW
3W 1D 6L · 1.00 PPM

Goals

0.70
Scored
0.90
3.20
Conceded
1.80
80%
Over 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
30%

By half

2.00
1H goals
0.70
1.90
2H goals
2.00
90%
Goal in 2H
100%

Corners

3.30N=10
For
4.90N=10
4.90
Against
5.40
8.20
Total
10.30
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
0.70
Goals scored
0.90
3.20
Goals conceded
1.80
3.90
Total goals
2.70
90%9/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
80%8/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
70%7/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
60%6/10
BTTS
30%3/10
Matchup

Southampton attack

0.70goals per match
Aston Villa conceded1.80
Matchup

Aston Villa attack

0.90goals per match
Southampton conceded3.20
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.40
1H goals scored
0.00
1.60
1H goals conceded
0.70
90%9/10
Over 0.5 1H
60%6/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
0%0/10
0.30
2H goals scored
0.90
1.60
2H goals conceded
1.10
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
100%10/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
70%7/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
3.30N=10
Corners for
4.90N=10
4.90
Corners against
5.40
8.20
Match total
10.30
50%5/10
Over 8.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
70%7/10
30%3/10
Team over 4.5
60%6/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.40N=10
For
2.00N=10
2.70
Match total
3.60
30%3/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10

Fouls

11.10N=10
Committed
10.40N=10
21.50
Match total
25.50

Shots

9.50N=10
Shots
8.90N=10
3.30
On target
3.00
7%
Conversion
10%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches148
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home16.9%14.9%-2.0 pp
Draw21.6%18.2%-3.3 pp
Away61.5%66.9%+5.4 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.579.1%
Over 2.557.4%
Over 3.533.8%
BTTS48.6%

Historical average

0.872.11

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-114.2%
1-211.5%
0-210.8%
1-16.8%
2-26.8%

Comparable corner averages

3.976.22
Average total10.19

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=148.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.569.6%
Over 9.556.1%
Over 10.545.9%
Over 11.535.1%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches35
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT17.1%8.1%–32.7% CI
Draw FT17.1%8.1%–32.7% CI
Away FT65.7%49.2%–79.2% CI

Remaining goals

1.60

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal85.7%
2+ goals42.9%
3+ goals17.1%

Who scores in 2H

Home34.3%
Away68.6%