Premier League · 2024/25
2025-04-12 · 15:00
15.6516.9%
X4.4221.6%
21.5561.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Southampton
LLLLLLLLLD
0W 1D 9L · 0.10 PPM
Aston Villa
LLLLWDLLWW
3W 1D 6L · 1.00 PPM
Goals
0.70
Scored
0.90
3.20
Conceded
1.80
80%
Over 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
30%
By half
2.00
1H goals
0.70
1.90
2H goals
2.00
90%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
3.30N=10
For
4.90N=10
4.90
Against
5.40
8.20
Total
10.30
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
0.70
Goals scored
0.90
3.20
Goals conceded
1.80
3.90
Total goals
2.70
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Southampton attack
0.70goals per matchAston Villa conceded1.80Matchup
Aston Villa attack
0.90goals per matchSouthampton conceded3.20Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.40
1H goals scored
0.00
1.60
1H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.30
2H goals scored
0.90
1.60
2H goals conceded
1.10
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
3.30N=10
Corners for
4.90N=10
4.90
Corners against
5.40
8.20
Match total
10.30
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.40N=10
For
2.00N=10
2.70
Match total
3.60
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.10N=10
Committed
10.40N=10
21.50
Match total
25.50
Shots
9.50N=10
Shots
8.90N=10
3.30
On target
3.00
7%
Conversion
10%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches148
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home16.9%14.9%-2.0 pp
Draw21.6%18.2%-3.3 pp
Away61.5%66.9%+5.4 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.579.1%
Over 2.557.4%
Over 3.533.8%
BTTS48.6%
Historical average
0.87–2.11
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-114.2%
1-211.5%
0-210.8%
1-16.8%
2-26.8%
Comparable corner averages
3.97–6.22
Average total10.19
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=148.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.569.6%
Over 9.556.1%
Over 10.545.9%
Over 11.535.1%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches35
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT17.1%8.1%–32.7% CI
Draw FT17.1%8.1%–32.7% CI
Away FT65.7%49.2%–79.2% CI
Remaining goals
1.60
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal85.7%
2+ goals42.9%
3+ goals17.1%
Who scores in 2H
Home34.3%
Away68.6%