Premier League · 2024/25
2025-04-05 · 17:30
11.9948.0%
X3.6326.3%
23.7225.7%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Aston Villa
DWWWDWDDDW
5W 5D 0L · 2.00 PPM
Nott'm Forest
LLWWWWLLLW
5W 0D 5L · 1.50 PPM
Goals
1.80
Scored
1.80
1.20
Conceded
2.10
70%
Over 2.5
80%
90%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.50
1H goals
2.00
1.50
2H goals
1.90
90%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
8.60N=10
For
4.00N=10
3.10
Against
6.40
11.70
Total
10.40
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
very strongOver 8.5 corners
8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
1.80
1.20
Goals conceded
2.10
3.00
Total goals
3.90
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Aston Villa attack
1.80goals per matchNott'm Forest conceded2.10Matchup
Nott'm Forest attack
1.80goals per matchAston Villa conceded1.20Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.00
1H goals scored
1.00
0.50
1H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.80
2H goals scored
0.80
0.70
2H goals conceded
1.10
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
8.60N=10
Corners for
4.00N=10
3.10
Corners against
6.40
11.70
Match total
10.40
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.50N=10
For
2.30N=10
3.80
Match total
4.00
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.50N=10
Committed
10.70N=10
23.70
Match total
20.30
Shots
15.90N=10
Shots
11.60N=10
5.50
On target
3.90
11%
Conversion
16%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches607
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home48.0%46.1%-1.9 pp
Draw26.3%28.2%+1.9 pp
Away25.7%25.7%+0.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.579.9%
Over 2.557.0%
Over 3.532.5%
BTTS58.8%
Historical average
1.68–1.18
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-112.5%
2-110.2%
1-08.2%
1-28.1%
0-07.6%
Comparable corner averages
5.72–4.28
Average total10.00
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=607.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.7%
Over 9.552.6%
Over 10.542.8%
Over 11.529.3%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches157
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT35.0%28.0%–42.8% CI
Draw FT43.9%36.4%–51.8% CI
Away FT21.0%15.4%–28.0% CI
Remaining goals
1.43
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal70.7%
2+ goals44.6%
3+ goals21.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home57.3%
Away44.6%