Premier League · 2024/25
2025-03-15 · 15:00
11.6657.8%
X4.4521.5%
24.6320.7%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Man City
WWLWLDWWWL
6W 1D 3L · 1.90 PPM
Brighton
LWLDDDWWLW
4W 3D 3L · 1.50 PPM

Goals

2.00
Scored
1.80
1.30
Conceded
1.90
70%
Over 2.5
80%
50%
BTTS
70%

By half

1.90
1H goals
1.20
1.40
2H goals
2.50
70%
Goal in 2H
100%

Corners

7.60N=10
For
4.80N=10
3.00
Against
6.10
10.60
Total
10.90
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

strongAt least one second-half goal

7/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

very strongOver 8.5 corners

8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
2.00
Goals scored
1.80
1.30
Goals conceded
1.90
3.30
Total goals
3.70
90%9/10
Over 1.5
100%10/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
80%8/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
BTTS
70%7/10
Matchup

Man City attack

2.00goals per match
Brighton conceded1.90
Matchup

Brighton attack

1.80goals per match
Man City conceded1.30
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
1.20
1H goals scored
0.60
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.60
100%10/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
50%5/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
0.80
2H goals scored
1.20
0.60
2H goals conceded
1.30
70%7/10
Over 0.5 2H
100%10/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
80%8/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
7.60N=10
Corners for
4.80N=10
3.00
Corners against
6.10
10.60
Match total
10.90
80%8/10
Over 8.5
80%8/10
80%8/10
Over 9.5
80%8/10
90%9/10
Team over 4.5
60%6/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.60N=10
For
2.00N=10
3.50
Match total
3.80
50%5/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

7.10N=10
Committed
13.10N=10
18.20
Match total
23.80

Shots

16.80N=10
Shots
11.80N=10
6.00
On target
5.40
12%
Conversion
15%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches48
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home57.8%58.3%+0.6 pp
Draw21.5%33.3%+11.8 pp
Away20.7%8.3%-12.4 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.577.1%
Over 2.552.1%
Over 3.535.4%
BTTS54.2%

Historical average

2.021.04

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-016.7%
1-116.7%
2-08.3%
2-28.3%
3-06.3%

Comparable corner averages

6.234.63
Average total10.85

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=48.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.570.8%
Over 9.560.4%
Over 10.552.1%
Over 11.537.5%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches10
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT70.0%39.7%–89.2% CI
Draw FT20.0%5.7%–51.0% CI
Away FT10.0%1.8%–40.4% CI

Remaining goals

1.40

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal90.0%
2+ goals40.0%
3+ goals10.0%

Who scores in 2H

Home80.0%
Away30.0%