Premier League · 2023/24
2024-05-12 · 16:30
17.0813.5%
X5.5017.4%
21.3969.0%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Man United
WLWDWLWDWD
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Arsenal
DLWWWWDWWW
7W 2D 1L · 2.30 PPM

Goals

2.00
Scored
2.90
1.50
Conceded
0.60
80%
Over 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
40%

By half

1.40
1H goals
2.00
2.10
2H goals
1.50
90%
Goal in 2H
80%

Corners

7.40N=10
For
5.80N=10
7.20
Against
4.10
14.60
Total
9.90
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongOver 2.5 goals

8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

strongOver 8.5 corners

10/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
2.00
Goals scored
2.90
1.50
Goals conceded
0.60
3.50
Total goals
3.50
100%10/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
80%8/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10
70%7/10
BTTS
40%4/10
Matchup

Man United attack

2.00goals per match
Arsenal conceded0.60
Matchup

Arsenal attack

2.90goals per match
Man United conceded1.50
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
1.80
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.20
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
60%6/10
1.30
2H goals scored
1.10
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.40
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
80%8/10
70%7/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
7.40N=10
Corners for
5.80N=10
7.20
Corners against
4.10
14.60
Match total
9.90
100%10/10
Over 8.5
70%7/10
90%9/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
90%9/10
Team over 4.5
70%7/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.90N=10
For
1.50N=10
3.80
Match total
3.40
60%6/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10

Fouls

8.90N=10
Committed
11.20N=10
18.30
Match total
23.00

Shots

17.90N=10
Shots
16.70N=10
7.10
On target
5.80
11%
Conversion
17%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches32
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home13.5%15.6%+2.1 pp
Draw17.4%25.0%+7.6 pp
Away69.0%59.4%-9.6 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.584.4%
Over 2.559.4%
Over 3.537.5%
BTTS62.5%

Historical average

1.162.19

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-115.6%
1-212.5%
3-29.4%
0-19.4%
0-29.4%

Comparable corner averages

3.097.09
Average total10.19

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=32.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.568.8%
Over 9.562.5%
Over 10.550.0%
Over 11.540.6%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches11
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT18.2%5.1%–47.7% CI
Draw FT27.3%9.7%–56.6% CI
Away FT54.5%28.0%–78.7% CI

Remaining goals

2.00

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal81.8%
2+ goals54.5%
3+ goals36.4%

Who scores in 2H

Home45.5%
Away63.6%