Premier League · 2023/24
2024-05-04 · 15:00
13.3828.4%
X3.9824.1%
22.0247.5%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Burnley
WLLDDLLWDD
2W 4D 4L · 1.00 PPM
Newcastle
LLLLWWLLWL
3W 0D 7L · 0.90 PPM

Goals

1.20
Scored
1.30
1.70
Conceded
2.40
40%
Over 2.5
70%
50%
BTTS
60%

By half

1.40
1H goals
1.30
1.50
2H goals
2.40
80%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

4.90N=10
For
3.80N=10
5.30
Against
6.30
10.20
Total
10.10
Signals

Key historical patterns

very strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

strongOver 8.5 corners

8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.30
1.70
Goals conceded
2.40
2.90
Total goals
3.70
100%10/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
40%4/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
30%3/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Burnley attack

1.20goals per match
Newcastle conceded2.40
Matchup

Newcastle attack

1.30goals per match
Burnley conceded1.70
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
0.50
0.90
1H goals conceded
0.80
90%9/10
Over 0.5 1H
60%6/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
10%1/10
0.70
2H goals scored
0.80
0.80
2H goals conceded
1.60
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
70%7/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.90N=10
Corners for
3.80N=10
5.30
Corners against
6.30
10.20
Match total
10.10
80%8/10
Over 8.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
30%3/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.40N=10
For
1.80N=10
3.60
Match total
4.00
40%4/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

10.40N=10
Committed
9.90N=10
21.10
Match total
22.40

Shots

13.60N=10
Shots
9.60N=10
4.10
On target
3.30
9%
Conversion
14%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches31
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home28.4%45.2%+16.8 pp
Draw24.1%22.6%-1.5 pp
Away47.5%32.3%-15.2 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.590.3%
Over 2.564.5%
Over 3.538.7%
BTTS77.4%

Historical average

1.811.58

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

2-116.1%
1-116.1%
4-29.7%
2-49.7%
1-29.7%

Comparable corner averages

5.296.19
Average total11.48

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=31.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.583.9%
Over 9.564.5%
Over 10.554.8%
Over 11.545.2%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches17
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT41.2%21.6%–64.0% CI
Draw FT35.3%17.3%–58.7% CI
Away FT23.5%9.6%–47.3% CI

Remaining goals

1.76

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal88.2%
2+ goals64.7%
3+ goals23.5%

Who scores in 2H

Home76.5%
Away52.9%