Premier League · 2023/24
2024-04-28 · 16:30
19.5010.1%
X5.7216.8%
21.3173.2%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Nott'm Forest
LLWLLWLDWD
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Man City
DLWWWWWDWW
7W 2D 1L · 2.30 PPM
Goals
1.50
Scored
2.50
1.60
Conceded
1.30
60%
Over 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.20
1H goals
1.80
1.90
2H goals
2.00
100%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
4.70N=10
For
6.10N=10
6.00
Against
5.00
10.70
Total
11.10
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
strongBoth teams scored
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
2.50
1.60
Goals conceded
1.30
3.10
Total goals
3.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Nott'm Forest attack
1.50goals per matchMan City conceded1.30Matchup
Man City attack
2.50goals per matchNott'm Forest conceded1.60Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
1.00
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.80
2H goals scored
1.50
1.10
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.70N=10
Corners for
6.10N=10
6.00
Corners against
5.00
10.70
Match total
11.10
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.40N=10
For
1.60N=10
3.80
Match total
3.60
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.00N=10
Committed
7.20N=10
21.20
Match total
17.80
Shots
12.90N=10
Shots
16.70N=10
4.20
On target
7.90
12%
Conversion
15%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches102
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home10.1%12.7%+2.7 pp
Draw16.8%11.8%-5.0 pp
Away73.2%75.5%+2.3 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.578.4%
Over 2.554.9%
Over 3.529.4%
BTTS39.2%
Historical average
0.71–2.24
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-214.7%
1-212.7%
0-111.8%
0-310.8%
1-06.9%
Comparable corner averages
2.87–6.91
Average total9.78
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=102.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.563.7%
Over 9.545.1%
Over 10.533.3%
Over 11.526.5%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches28
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT21.4%10.2%–39.5% CI
Draw FT17.9%7.9%–35.6% CI
Away FT60.7%42.4%–76.4% CI
Remaining goals
1.50
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal89.3%
2+ goals39.3%
3+ goals17.9%
Who scores in 2H
Home39.3%
Away67.9%