Premier League · 2023/24
2024-04-28 · 14:00
12.2642.3%
X3.8025.2%
22.9432.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Bournemouth
DWLDLDWWWD
4W 4D 2L · 1.60 PPM
Brighton
LDDLLWLLDD
1W 4D 5L · 0.70 PPM
Goals
1.70
Scored
0.90
1.60
Conceded
1.50
70%
Over 2.5
50%
60%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.30
1H goals
1.10
2.00
2H goals
1.30
80%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
8.10N=10
For
4.20N=10
4.90
Against
5.10
13.00
Total
9.30
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
10/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.70
Goals scored
0.90
1.60
Goals conceded
1.50
3.30
Total goals
2.40
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Bournemouth attack
1.70goals per matchBrighton conceded1.50Matchup
Brighton attack
0.90goals per matchBournemouth conceded1.60Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
0.40
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.20
2H goals scored
0.50
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
8.10N=10
Corners for
4.20N=10
4.90
Corners against
5.10
13.00
Match total
9.30
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.30N=10
For
2.20N=10
4.50
Match total
4.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.60N=10
Committed
9.40N=10
24.90
Match total
21.40
Shots
16.20N=10
Shots
15.30N=10
5.50
On target
5.20
10%
Conversion
6%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches45
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home42.3%26.7%-15.6 pp
Draw25.2%37.8%+12.6 pp
Away32.5%35.6%+3.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.588.9%
Over 2.564.4%
Over 3.548.9%
BTTS75.6%
Historical average
1.62–1.76
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-115.6%
1-211.1%
2-28.9%
0-08.9%
3-26.7%
Comparable corner averages
6.60–4.33
Average total10.93
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=45.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.566.7%
Over 9.551.1%
Over 10.546.7%
Over 11.540.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches10
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT10.0%1.8%–40.4% CI
Draw FT60.0%31.3%–83.2% CI
Away FT30.0%10.8%–60.3% CI
Remaining goals
1.50
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal60.0%
2+ goals50.0%
3+ goals20.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home40.0%
Away60.0%