Premier League · 2023/24
2024-04-27 · 20:00
12.1744.1%
X3.9024.6%
23.0631.3%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Aston Villa
WDWLLWLWDW
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Chelsea
LLLWLWDDDL
2W 3D 5L · 0.90 PPM

Goals

1.90
Scored
1.40
1.80
Conceded
2.30
70%
Over 2.5
80%
70%
BTTS
80%

By half

1.50
1H goals
1.20
2.20
2H goals
2.50
90%
Goal in 2H
100%

Corners

7.30N=10
For
4.30N=10
3.80
Against
6.50
11.10
Total
10.80
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

strongBoth teams scored

7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

strongOver 8.5 corners

8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.90
Goals scored
1.40
1.80
Goals conceded
2.30
3.70
Total goals
3.70
90%9/10
Over 1.5
100%10/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
80%8/10
60%6/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10
70%7/10
BTTS
80%8/10
Matchup

Aston Villa attack

1.90goals per match
Chelsea conceded2.30
Matchup

Chelsea attack

1.40goals per match
Aston Villa conceded1.80
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
0.60
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.60
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
50%5/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
1.00
2H goals scored
0.80
1.20
2H goals conceded
1.70
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
100%10/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
70%7/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
7.30N=10
Corners for
4.30N=10
3.80
Corners against
6.50
11.10
Match total
10.80
80%8/10
Over 8.5
70%7/10
60%6/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
90%9/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.50N=10
For
2.30N=10
4.70
Match total
4.80
80%8/10
Over 3.5
100%10/10

Fouls

11.10N=10
Committed
11.90N=10
24.60
Match total
23.80

Shots

13.80N=10
Shots
11.40N=10
4.90
On target
4.40
14%
Conversion
12%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches27
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home44.1%48.1%+4.0 pp
Draw24.6%18.5%-6.0 pp
Away31.3%33.3%+2.0 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.588.9%
Over 2.563.0%
Over 3.551.9%
BTTS66.7%

Historical average

1.931.70

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-211.1%
3-27.4%
4-37.4%
2-27.4%
2-17.4%

Comparable corner averages

6.744.63
Average total11.37

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=27.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.570.4%
Over 9.559.3%
Over 10.555.6%
Over 11.544.4%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches14
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT35.7%16.3%–61.2% CI
Draw FT35.7%16.3%–61.2% CI
Away FT28.6%11.7%–54.6% CI

Remaining goals

1.43

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal71.4%
2+ goals35.7%
3+ goals21.4%

Who scores in 2H

Home50.0%
Away50.0%