Premier League · 2023/24
2024-04-25 · 20:00
16.6514.4%
X4.9519.3%
21.4466.3%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Brighton
DDWDWDWDWL
4W 5D 1L · 1.70 PPM
Man City
WDLWWWWWDW
7W 2D 1L · 2.30 PPM
Goals
1.50
Scored
2.40
1.10
Conceded
1.30
40%
Over 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.20
1H goals
1.60
1.40
2H goals
2.10
80%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
7.20N=10
For
6.90N=10
3.30
Against
5.30
10.50
Total
12.20
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongBoth teams scored
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
very strongOver 8.5 corners
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
2.40
1.10
Goals conceded
1.30
2.60
Total goals
3.70
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Brighton attack
1.50goals per matchMan City conceded1.30Matchup
Man City attack
2.40goals per matchBrighton conceded1.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
0.80
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.60
2H goals scored
1.60
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
7.20N=10
Corners for
6.90N=10
3.30
Corners against
5.30
10.50
Match total
12.20
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.80N=10
For
1.70N=10
4.60
Match total
3.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.30N=10
Committed
7.30N=10
22.70
Match total
17.80
Shots
15.80N=10
Shots
17.40N=10
6.20
On target
8.30
9%
Conversion
14%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches86
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home14.4%18.6%+4.2 pp
Draw19.3%16.3%-3.0 pp
Away66.3%65.1%-1.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.581.4%
Over 2.559.3%
Over 3.533.7%
BTTS47.7%
Historical average
0.88–2.06
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-312.8%
0-210.5%
1-19.3%
1-39.3%
1-28.1%
Comparable corner averages
3.48–6.55
Average total10.02
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=86.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.570.9%
Over 9.555.8%
Over 10.541.9%
Over 11.527.9%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT15.8%5.5%–37.6% CI
Draw FT26.3%11.8%–48.8% CI
Away FT57.9%36.3%–76.9% CI
Remaining goals
1.68
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal89.5%
2+ goals47.4%
3+ goals21.1%
Who scores in 2H
Home42.1%
Away73.7%