Premier League · 2023/24
2024-04-25 · 20:00
16.6514.4%
X4.9519.3%
21.4466.3%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Brighton
DDWDWDWDWL
4W 5D 1L · 1.70 PPM
Man City
WDLWWWWWDW
7W 2D 1L · 2.30 PPM

Goals

1.50
Scored
2.40
1.10
Conceded
1.30
40%
Over 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
70%

By half

1.20
1H goals
1.60
1.40
2H goals
2.10
80%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

7.20N=10
For
6.90N=10
3.30
Against
5.30
10.50
Total
12.20
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongBoth teams scored

7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

very strongOver 8.5 corners

9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
2.40
1.10
Goals conceded
1.30
2.60
Total goals
3.70
80%8/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
40%4/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
20%2/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10
70%7/10
BTTS
70%7/10
Matchup

Brighton attack

1.50goals per match
Man City conceded1.30
Matchup

Man City attack

2.40goals per match
Brighton conceded1.10
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
0.80
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.80
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
90%9/10
50%5/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
0.60
2H goals scored
1.60
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.50
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
50%5/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
7.20N=10
Corners for
6.90N=10
3.30
Corners against
5.30
10.50
Match total
12.20
90%9/10
Over 8.5
80%8/10
70%7/10
Over 9.5
70%7/10
90%9/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.80N=10
For
1.70N=10
4.60
Match total
3.90
80%8/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

11.30N=10
Committed
7.30N=10
22.70
Match total
17.80

Shots

15.80N=10
Shots
17.40N=10
6.20
On target
8.30
9%
Conversion
14%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches86
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home14.4%18.6%+4.2 pp
Draw19.3%16.3%-3.0 pp
Away66.3%65.1%-1.2 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.581.4%
Over 2.559.3%
Over 3.533.7%
BTTS47.7%

Historical average

0.882.06

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-312.8%
0-210.5%
1-19.3%
1-39.3%
1-28.1%

Comparable corner averages

3.486.55
Average total10.02

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=86.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.570.9%
Over 9.555.8%
Over 10.541.9%
Over 11.527.9%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT15.8%5.5%–37.6% CI
Draw FT26.3%11.8%–48.8% CI
Away FT57.9%36.3%–76.9% CI

Remaining goals

1.68

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal89.5%
2+ goals47.4%
3+ goals21.1%

Who scores in 2H

Home42.1%
Away73.7%