Premier League · 2023/24
2024-04-23 · 20:00
11.4566.3%
X4.9319.5%
26.7814.2%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Arsenal
WWWLWWWWWL
8W 0D 2L · 2.40 PPM
Chelsea
LLLLWLWDDD
2W 3D 5L · 0.90 PPM

Goals

2.30
Scored
1.50
0.90
Conceded
2.20
60%
Over 2.5
80%
50%
BTTS
90%

By half

1.40
1H goals
1.30
1.80
2H goals
2.40
90%
Goal in 2H
100%

Corners

6.10N=10
For
4.30N=10
2.90
Against
6.50
9.00
Total
10.80
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
2.30
Goals scored
1.50
0.90
Goals conceded
2.20
3.20
Total goals
3.70
100%10/10
Over 1.5
100%10/10
60%6/10
Over 2.5
80%8/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
BTTS
90%9/10
Matchup

Arsenal attack

2.30goals per match
Chelsea conceded2.20
Matchup

Chelsea attack

1.50goals per match
Arsenal conceded0.90
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
1.10
1H goals scored
0.70
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.60
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
50%5/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
1.20
2H goals scored
0.80
0.60
2H goals conceded
1.60
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
100%10/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
70%7/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
6.10N=10
Corners for
4.30N=10
2.90
Corners against
6.50
9.00
Match total
10.80
60%6/10
Over 8.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.70N=10
For
2.50N=10
3.10
Match total
5.20
40%4/10
Over 3.5
100%10/10

Fouls

10.40N=10
Committed
12.70N=10
19.40
Match total
24.70

Shots

19.30N=10
Shots
11.40N=10
6.40
On target
4.70
12%
Conversion
13%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches172
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home66.3%66.9%+0.5 pp
Draw19.5%24.4%+4.9 pp
Away14.2%8.7%-5.5 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.582.6%
Over 2.564.0%
Over 3.543.6%
BTTS55.8%

Historical average

2.370.94

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

2-111.6%
2-09.3%
3-18.1%
1-17.6%
1-07.6%

Comparable corner averages

6.273.51
Average total9.78

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=172.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.562.8%
Over 9.554.7%
Over 10.541.9%
Over 11.529.7%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches29
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT41.4%25.5%–59.3% CI
Draw FT48.3%31.4%–65.6% CI
Away FT10.3%3.6%–26.4% CI

Remaining goals

1.03

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal62.1%
2+ goals34.5%
3+ goals6.9%

Who scores in 2H

Home51.7%
Away24.1%