Premier League · 2023/24
2024-04-14 · 16:30
11.2874.7%
X6.1015.7%
29.899.7%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Arsenal
WWWWLWWWWW
9W 0D 1L · 2.70 PPM
Aston Villa
WDWLDWWWDL
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Goals
2.80
Scored
2.00
0.70
Conceded
1.50
70%
Over 2.5
80%
50%
BTTS
80%
By half
1.50
1H goals
1.80
2.00
2H goals
1.70
90%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
6.30N=10
For
6.10N=10
2.40
Against
5.40
8.70
Total
11.50
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.80
Goals scored
2.00
0.70
Goals conceded
1.50
3.50
Total goals
3.50
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Arsenal attack
2.80goals per matchAston Villa conceded1.50Matchup
Aston Villa attack
2.00goals per matchArsenal conceded0.70Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.20
1H goals scored
1.20
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.60
2H goals scored
0.80
0.40
2H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.30N=10
Corners for
6.10N=10
2.40
Corners against
5.40
8.70
Match total
11.50
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.40N=10
For
2.90N=10
3.00
Match total
5.30
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.10N=10
Committed
11.20N=10
19.70
Match total
22.90
Shots
18.80N=10
Shots
12.60N=10
6.80
On target
5.10
15%
Conversion
16%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches87
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home74.7%77.0%+2.3 pp
Draw15.7%14.9%-0.7 pp
Away9.7%8.0%-1.6 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.585.1%
Over 2.564.4%
Over 3.542.5%
BTTS47.1%
Historical average
2.43–0.68
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
4-014.9%
2-111.5%
2-011.5%
1-09.2%
1-18.0%
Comparable corner averages
7.14–3.13
Average total10.26
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=87.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.563.2%
Over 9.556.3%
Over 10.541.4%
Over 11.535.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches16
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT68.8%44.4%–85.8% CI
Draw FT25.0%10.2%–49.5% CI
Away FT6.3%1.1%–28.3% CI
Remaining goals
1.88
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal87.5%
2+ goals56.3%
3+ goals25.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home81.3%
Away25.0%