Premier League · 2023/24
2024-04-14 · 16:30
11.2874.7%
X6.1015.7%
29.899.7%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Arsenal
WWWWLWWWWW
9W 0D 1L · 2.70 PPM
Aston Villa
WDWLDWWWDL
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM

Goals

2.80
Scored
2.00
0.70
Conceded
1.50
70%
Over 2.5
80%
50%
BTTS
80%

By half

1.50
1H goals
1.80
2.00
2H goals
1.70
90%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

6.30N=10
For
6.10N=10
2.40
Against
5.40
8.70
Total
11.50
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
2.80
Goals scored
2.00
0.70
Goals conceded
1.50
3.50
Total goals
3.50
100%10/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
80%8/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
BTTS
80%8/10
Matchup

Arsenal attack

2.80goals per match
Aston Villa conceded1.50
Matchup

Aston Villa attack

2.00goals per match
Arsenal conceded0.70
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
1.20
1H goals scored
1.20
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.60
90%9/10
Over 0.5 1H
90%9/10
60%6/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
1.60
2H goals scored
0.80
0.40
2H goals conceded
0.90
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
40%4/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
6.30N=10
Corners for
6.10N=10
2.40
Corners against
5.40
8.70
Match total
11.50
50%5/10
Over 8.5
70%7/10
40%4/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
Team over 4.5
60%6/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.40N=10
For
2.90N=10
3.00
Match total
5.30
30%3/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

10.10N=10
Committed
11.20N=10
19.70
Match total
22.90

Shots

18.80N=10
Shots
12.60N=10
6.80
On target
5.10
15%
Conversion
16%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches87
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home74.7%77.0%+2.3 pp
Draw15.7%14.9%-0.7 pp
Away9.7%8.0%-1.6 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.585.1%
Over 2.564.4%
Over 3.542.5%
BTTS47.1%

Historical average

2.430.68

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

4-014.9%
2-111.5%
2-011.5%
1-09.2%
1-18.0%

Comparable corner averages

7.143.13
Average total10.26

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=87.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.563.2%
Over 9.556.3%
Over 10.541.4%
Over 11.535.6%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches16
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT68.8%44.4%–85.8% CI
Draw FT25.0%10.2%–49.5% CI
Away FT6.3%1.1%–28.3% CI

Remaining goals

1.88

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal87.5%
2+ goals56.3%
3+ goals25.0%

Who scores in 2H

Home81.3%
Away25.0%