Premier League · 2023/24
2024-04-13 · 15:00
11.1087.7%
X11.668.3%
223.864.0%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Man City
DDWWWDWWDW
6W 4D 0L · 2.20 PPM
Luton
LLWDDLDLLL
1W 3D 6L · 0.60 PPM
Goals
2.10
Scored
1.50
0.90
Conceded
2.40
50%
Over 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
80%
By half
1.20
1H goals
1.40
1.80
2H goals
2.50
90%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
9.00N=10
For
4.20N=10
2.50
Against
7.50
11.50
Total
11.70
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateBoth teams scored
6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
very strongOver 8.5 corners
8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.10
Goals scored
1.50
0.90
Goals conceded
2.40
3.00
Total goals
3.90
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Man City attack
2.10goals per matchLuton conceded2.40Matchup
Luton attack
1.50goals per matchMan City conceded0.90Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.80
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.30
2H goals scored
0.70
0.50
2H goals conceded
1.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
9.00N=10
Corners for
4.20N=10
2.50
Corners against
7.50
11.50
Match total
11.70
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.20N=10
For
2.00N=10
3.40
Match total
3.60
Over 3.5
Fouls
7.90N=10
Committed
11.80N=10
19.30
Match total
24.90
Shots
20.80N=10
Shots
9.40N=10
6.00
On target
3.50
10%
Conversion
16%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches24
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home87.7%91.7%+4.0 pp
Draw8.3%8.3%+0.1 pp
Away4.0%0.0%-4.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.595.8%
Over 2.579.2%
Over 3.562.5%
BTTS45.8%
Historical average
3.63–0.63
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-012.5%
6-112.5%
4-012.5%
5-012.5%
3-08.3%
Comparable corner averages
9.17–2.17
Average total11.33
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=24.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.575.0%
Over 9.566.7%
Over 10.550.0%
Over 11.541.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches14
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT85.7%60.1%–96.0% CI
Draw FT0.0%0.0%–21.5% CI
Away FT14.3%4.0%–39.9% CI
Remaining goals
2.64
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal100.0%
2+ goals64.3%
3+ goals50.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home92.9%
Away35.7%