Premier League · 2023/24
2024-04-13 · 15:00
11.1087.7%
X11.668.3%
223.864.0%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Man City
DDWWWDWWDW
6W 4D 0L · 2.20 PPM
Luton
LLWDDLDLLL
1W 3D 6L · 0.60 PPM

Goals

2.10
Scored
1.50
0.90
Conceded
2.40
50%
Over 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
80%

By half

1.20
1H goals
1.40
1.80
2H goals
2.50
90%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

9.00N=10
For
4.20N=10
2.50
Against
7.50
11.50
Total
11.70
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateBoth teams scored

6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

very strongOver 8.5 corners

8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
2.10
Goals scored
1.50
0.90
Goals conceded
2.40
3.00
Total goals
3.90
80%8/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
50%5/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
BTTS
80%8/10
Matchup

Man City attack

2.10goals per match
Luton conceded2.40
Matchup

Luton attack

1.50goals per match
Man City conceded0.90
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.80
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.60
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
50%5/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
1.30
2H goals scored
0.70
0.50
2H goals conceded
1.80
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
60%6/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
9.00N=10
Corners for
4.20N=10
2.50
Corners against
7.50
11.50
Match total
11.70
80%8/10
Over 8.5
90%9/10
70%7/10
Over 9.5
80%8/10
90%9/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.20N=10
For
2.00N=10
3.40
Match total
3.60
40%4/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

7.90N=10
Committed
11.80N=10
19.30
Match total
24.90

Shots

20.80N=10
Shots
9.40N=10
6.00
On target
3.50
10%
Conversion
16%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches24
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home87.7%91.7%+4.0 pp
Draw8.3%8.3%+0.1 pp
Away4.0%0.0%-4.0 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.595.8%
Over 2.579.2%
Over 3.562.5%
BTTS45.8%

Historical average

3.630.63

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

2-012.5%
6-112.5%
4-012.5%
5-012.5%
3-08.3%

Comparable corner averages

9.172.17
Average total11.33

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=24.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.575.0%
Over 9.566.7%
Over 10.550.0%
Over 11.541.7%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches14
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT85.7%60.1%–96.0% CI
Draw FT0.0%0.0%–21.5% CI
Away FT14.3%4.0%–39.9% CI

Remaining goals

2.64

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal100.0%
2+ goals64.3%
3+ goals50.0%

Who scores in 2H

Home92.9%
Away35.7%