Premier League · 2023/24
2024-04-04 · 20:15
12.0247.4%
X4.0523.6%
23.3128.9%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Chelsea
DLDWWWWLWD
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Man United
WLDLLWWWLD
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM
Goals
2.10
Scored
1.40
1.90
Conceded
1.40
70%
Over 2.5
60%
70%
BTTS
60%
By half
1.70
1H goals
0.80
2.30
2H goals
2.00
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
5.90N=10
For
4.20N=10
4.10
Against
8.40
10.00
Total
12.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
moderateBoth teams scored
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.10
Goals scored
1.40
1.90
Goals conceded
1.40
4.00
Total goals
2.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Chelsea attack
2.10goals per matchMan United conceded1.40Matchup
Man United attack
1.40goals per matchChelsea conceded1.90Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.00
1H goals scored
0.70
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.10
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.10
2H goals scored
0.70
1.20
2H goals conceded
1.30
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.90N=10
Corners for
4.20N=10
4.10
Corners against
8.40
10.00
Match total
12.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.90N=10
For
2.80N=10
5.50
Match total
4.80
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.10N=10
Committed
11.70N=10
23.30
Match total
20.60
Shots
15.40N=10
Shots
11.70N=10
6.10
On target
4.20
14%
Conversion
12%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches14
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home47.4%42.9%-4.6 pp
Draw23.6%14.3%-9.4 pp
Away28.9%42.9%+13.9 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.578.6%
Over 2.542.9%
Over 3.514.3%
BTTS57.1%
Historical average
1.29–1.36
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-214.3%
2-014.3%
1-114.3%
2-114.3%
0-114.3%
Comparable corner averages
5.14–3.93
Average total9.07
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=14.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.542.9%
Over 9.535.7%
Over 10.528.6%
Over 11.528.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches10
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT40.0%16.8%–68.7% CI
Draw FT50.0%23.7%–76.3% CI
Away FT10.0%1.8%–40.4% CI
Remaining goals
1.20
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal80.0%
2+ goals40.0%
3+ goals0.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home70.0%
Away40.0%