Premier League · 2023/24
2024-04-03 · 20:15
11.3073.7%
X6.0815.8%
29.0610.6%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Man City
DDDWWWDWWD
5W 5D 0L · 2.00 PPM
Aston Villa
LWDWLDWWWD
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM

Goals

1.80
Scored
1.90
0.90
Conceded
1.30
40%
Over 2.5
70%
60%
BTTS
70%

By half

1.00
1H goals
1.60
1.70
2H goals
1.60
90%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

9.70N=10
For
6.80N=10
2.80
Against
5.20
12.50
Total
12.00
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateBoth teams scored

6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

very strongOver 8.5 corners

9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
1.90
0.90
Goals conceded
1.30
2.70
Total goals
3.20
80%8/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
40%4/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10
60%6/10
BTTS
70%7/10
Matchup

Man City attack

1.80goals per match
Aston Villa conceded1.30
Matchup

Aston Villa attack

1.90goals per match
Man City conceded0.90
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
1.10
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.50
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
90%9/10
50%5/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
1.10
2H goals scored
0.80
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.80
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
40%4/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
9.70N=10
Corners for
6.80N=10
2.80
Corners against
5.20
12.50
Match total
12.00
90%9/10
Over 8.5
80%8/10
80%8/10
Over 9.5
60%6/10
100%10/10
Team over 4.5
70%7/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.20N=10
For
2.80N=10
3.50
Match total
5.20
50%5/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

8.20N=10
Committed
10.80N=10
19.40
Match total
22.50

Shots

19.90N=10
Shots
13.10N=10
5.40
On target
5.10
9%
Conversion
15%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches50
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home73.7%78.0%+4.3 pp
Draw15.8%14.0%-1.8 pp
Away10.6%8.0%-2.6 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.582.0%
Over 2.572.0%
Over 3.552.0%
BTTS58.0%

Historical average

2.600.98

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

2-118.0%
1-012.0%
4-16.0%
4-06.0%
2-26.0%

Comparable corner averages

7.523.46
Average total10.98

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=50.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.578.0%
Over 9.568.0%
Over 10.552.0%
Over 11.542.0%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches10
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT50.0%23.7%–76.3% CI
Draw FT40.0%16.8%–68.7% CI
Away FT10.0%1.8%–40.4% CI

Remaining goals

1.90

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal80.0%
2+ goals50.0%
3+ goals40.0%

Who scores in 2H

Home70.0%
Away60.0%