Premier League · 2023/24
2024-04-03 · 19:30
11.1087.2%
X11.258.5%
222.734.2%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Arsenal
WWWWWLWWWW
9W 0D 1L · 2.70 PPM
Luton
LLLWDDLDLL
1W 3D 6L · 0.60 PPM

Goals

2.70
Scored
1.60
0.70
Conceded
2.50
70%
Over 2.5
70%
50%
BTTS
90%

By half

1.30
1H goals
1.30
2.10
2H goals
2.80
100%
Goal in 2H
100%

Corners

6.50N=10
For
4.50N=10
2.70
Against
7.80
9.20
Total
12.30
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

10/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

6/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
2.70
Goals scored
1.60
0.70
Goals conceded
2.50
3.40
Total goals
4.10
90%9/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
BTTS
90%9/10
Matchup

Arsenal attack

2.70goals per match
Luton conceded2.50
Matchup

Luton attack

1.60goals per match
Arsenal conceded0.70
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
1.00
1H goals scored
0.80
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.50
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
50%5/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
1.70
2H goals scored
0.80
0.40
2H goals conceded
2.00
100%10/10
Over 0.5 2H
100%10/10
60%6/10
More goals in 2H
70%7/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
6.50N=10
Corners for
4.50N=10
2.70
Corners against
7.80
9.20
Match total
12.30
60%6/10
Over 8.5
100%10/10
40%4/10
Over 9.5
90%9/10
70%7/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.50N=10
For
2.10N=10
3.30
Match total
3.90
40%4/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10

Fouls

9.70N=10
Committed
12.00N=10
19.20
Match total
25.00

Shots

18.70N=10
Shots
9.60N=10
6.60
On target
3.50
14%
Conversion
17%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches30
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home87.2%93.3%+6.1 pp
Draw8.5%6.7%-1.9 pp
Away4.2%0.0%-4.2 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.596.7%
Over 2.586.7%
Over 3.570.0%
BTTS43.3%

Historical average

4.170.63

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

5-013.3%
3-010.0%
6-110.0%
4-010.0%
2-06.7%

Comparable corner averages

8.532.47
Average total11.00

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=30.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.573.3%
Over 9.563.3%
Over 10.550.0%
Over 11.540.0%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches13
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT84.6%57.8%–95.7% CI
Draw FT0.0%0.0%–22.8% CI
Away FT15.4%4.3%–42.2% CI

Remaining goals

2.15

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal100.0%
2+ goals61.5%
3+ goals30.8%

Who scores in 2H

Home92.3%
Away30.8%