Premier League · 2023/24
2024-04-03 · 19:30
11.1087.2%
X11.258.5%
222.734.2%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Arsenal
WWWWWLWWWW
9W 0D 1L · 2.70 PPM
Luton
LLLWDDLDLL
1W 3D 6L · 0.60 PPM
Goals
2.70
Scored
1.60
0.70
Conceded
2.50
70%
Over 2.5
70%
50%
BTTS
90%
By half
1.30
1H goals
1.30
2.10
2H goals
2.80
100%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
6.50N=10
For
4.50N=10
2.70
Against
7.80
9.20
Total
12.30
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.70
Goals scored
1.60
0.70
Goals conceded
2.50
3.40
Total goals
4.10
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Arsenal attack
2.70goals per matchLuton conceded2.50Matchup
Luton attack
1.60goals per matchArsenal conceded0.70Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.00
1H goals scored
0.80
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.70
2H goals scored
0.80
0.40
2H goals conceded
2.00
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.50N=10
Corners for
4.50N=10
2.70
Corners against
7.80
9.20
Match total
12.30
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.50N=10
For
2.10N=10
3.30
Match total
3.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
9.70N=10
Committed
12.00N=10
19.20
Match total
25.00
Shots
18.70N=10
Shots
9.60N=10
6.60
On target
3.50
14%
Conversion
17%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches30
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home87.2%93.3%+6.1 pp
Draw8.5%6.7%-1.9 pp
Away4.2%0.0%-4.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.596.7%
Over 2.586.7%
Over 3.570.0%
BTTS43.3%
Historical average
4.17–0.63
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
5-013.3%
3-010.0%
6-110.0%
4-010.0%
2-06.7%
Comparable corner averages
8.53–2.47
Average total11.00
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=30.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.573.3%
Over 9.563.3%
Over 10.550.0%
Over 11.540.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches13
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT84.6%57.8%–95.7% CI
Draw FT0.0%0.0%–22.8% CI
Away FT15.4%4.3%–42.2% CI
Remaining goals
2.15
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal100.0%
2+ goals61.5%
3+ goals30.8%
Who scores in 2H
Home92.3%
Away30.8%