Premier League · 2023/24
2024-03-31 · 16:30
11.9249.9%
X3.8025.2%
23.8624.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Man City
WDDDWWWDWW
6W 4D 0L · 2.20 PPM
Arsenal
LWWLDLWWWW
6W 1D 3L · 1.90 PPM
Goals
2.40
Scored
2.60
1.00
Conceded
0.90
50%
Over 2.5
60%
70%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.30
1H goals
1.90
2.10
2H goals
1.60
100%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
10.20N=10
For
6.90N=10
2.50
Against
2.40
12.70
Total
9.30
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
9/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.40
Goals scored
2.60
1.00
Goals conceded
0.90
3.40
Total goals
3.50
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Man City attack
2.40goals per matchArsenal conceded0.90Matchup
Arsenal attack
2.60goals per matchMan City conceded1.00Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.00
1H goals scored
1.50
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.40
2H goals scored
1.10
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
10.20N=10
Corners for
6.90N=10
2.50
Corners against
2.40
12.70
Match total
9.30
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.20N=10
For
1.30N=10
3.40
Match total
3.80
Over 3.5
Fouls
8.10N=10
Committed
8.80N=10
18.20
Match total
21.00
Shots
20.80N=10
Shots
17.20N=10
6.10
On target
5.60
12%
Conversion
15%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches398
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home49.9%53.5%+3.6 pp
Draw25.2%24.9%-0.4 pp
Away24.8%21.6%-3.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.577.9%
Over 2.553.3%
Over 3.530.4%
BTTS54.5%
Historical average
1.74–1.08
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-112.1%
1-010.6%
2-110.1%
2-09.8%
1-26.0%
Comparable corner averages
5.76–4.50
Average total10.26
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=398.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.567.3%
Over 9.555.0%
Over 10.545.5%
Over 11.533.4%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches110
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT41.8%33.0%–51.2% CI
Draw FT39.1%30.5%–48.4% CI
Away FT19.1%12.8%–27.4% CI
Remaining goals
1.53
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal78.2%
2+ goals45.5%
3+ goals20.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home65.5%
Away42.7%